**Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and light rain have kept overnight radiative cooling minimal in Chengdu, positioning the daily minimum near 21°C.** Official forecasts and real-time observations on September 19 show temperatures holding between roughly 21–23°C through the night under overcast skies with dew points near the air temperature, limiting temperature drops. This matches the market-implied 90% probability on 21°C, while lower outcomes (17–20°C) reflect only modest uncertainty from localized variations or minor forecast revisions. Historical September nocturnal lows average near 19–20°C under clearer conditions, but current stable, moist air mass and lack of strong winds or clearing have suppressed further cooling. Traders appear to weigh the latest model consensus and surface observations heavily, with resolution hinging on the official recorded minimum before midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 19?
21°C 90%
20°C 20%
17°C 1.0%
18°C 1.0%
$2,464 Vol.
$2,464 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
21°C 90%
20°C 20%
17°C 1.0%
18°C 1.0%
$2,464 Vol.
$2,464 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
16°C or below
$128 Vol.
No
17°C
$0 Vol.
No
18°C
$0 Vol.
No
19°C
$25 Vol.
No
20°C
$40 Vol.
No
21°C
$57 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$1,554 Vol.
No
23°C
$31 Vol.
No
24°C
$37 Vol.
No
25°C
$231 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$361 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and light rain have kept overnight radiative cooling minimal in Chengdu, positioning the daily minimum near 21°C.**
Official forecasts and real-time observations on September 19 show temperatures holding between roughly 21–23°C through the night under overcast skies with dew points near the air temperature, limiting temperature drops. This matches the market-implied 90% probability on 21°C, while lower outcomes (17–20°C) reflect only modest uncertainty from localized variations or minor forecast revisions. Historical September nocturnal lows average near 19–20°C under clearer conditions, but current stable, moist air mass and lack of strong winds or clearing have suppressed further cooling. Traders appear to weigh the latest model consensus and surface observations heavily, with resolution hinging on the official recorded minimum before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,464End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and light rain have kept overnight radiative cooling minimal in Chengdu, positioning the daily minimum near 21°C.**
Official forecasts and real-time observations on September 19 show temperatures holding between roughly 21–23°C through the night under overcast skies with dew points near the air temperature, limiting temperature drops. This matches the market-implied 90% probability on 21°C, while lower outcomes (17–20°C) reflect only modest uncertainty from localized variations or minor forecast revisions. Historical September nocturnal lows average near 19–20°C under clearer conditions, but current stable, moist air mass and lack of strong winds or clearing have suppressed further cooling. Traders appear to weigh the latest model consensus and surface observations heavily, with resolution hinging on the official recorded minimum before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,464End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and light rain have kept overnight radiative cooling minimal in Chengdu, positioning the daily minimum near 21°C.** Official forecasts and real-time observations on September 19 show temperatures holding between roughly 21–23°C through the night under overcast skies with dew points near the air temperature, limiting temperature drops. This matches the market-implied 90% probability on 21°C, while lower outcomes (17–20°C) reflect only modest uncertainty from localized variations or minor forecast revisions. Historical September nocturnal lows average near 19–20°C under clearer conditions, but current stable, moist air mass and lack of strong winds or clearing have suppressed further cooling. Traders appear to weigh the latest model consensus and surface observations heavily, with resolution hinging on the official recorded minimum before midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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