**Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure regime are positioning Beijing's overnight low near 16°C for September 21, 2026, driving the 85% market-implied probability.** Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources project a minimum of 18–20°C amid radiative cooling typical of early autumn, with daytime highs near 30°C creating a diurnal range exceeding 10°C. Recent days have seen similar patterns with lows around 19–21°C and no incoming cold fronts or significant moisture, keeping trader consensus anchored on 16°C. Global model runs show tight agreement on minimal cloud cover and southerly flow, though exact station readings at resolution time introduce modest uncertainty reflected in the 15% odds for 13°C or below.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 21?
16°C 98%
14°C 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
13°C or below <1%
$405 Vol.
$405 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
16°C 98%
14°C 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
13°C or below <1%
$405 Vol.
$405 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
No
14°C
$0 Vol.
No
15°C
$0 Vol.
No
16°C
$55 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$131 Vol.
No
18°C
$47 Vol.
No
19°C
$37 Vol.
No
20°C
$36 Vol.
No
21°C
$37 Vol.
No
22°C
$31 Vol.
No
23°C or higher
$31 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure regime are positioning Beijing's overnight low near 16°C for September 21, 2026, driving the 85% market-implied probability.** Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources project a minimum of 18–20°C amid radiative cooling typical of early autumn, with daytime highs near 30°C creating a diurnal range exceeding 10°C. Recent days have seen similar patterns with lows around 19–21°C and no incoming cold fronts or significant moisture, keeping trader consensus anchored on 16°C. Global model runs show tight agreement on minimal cloud cover and southerly flow, though exact station readings at resolution time introduce modest uncertainty reflected in the 15% odds for 13°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$405End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure regime are positioning Beijing's overnight low near 16°C for September 21, 2026, driving the 85% market-implied probability.** Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources project a minimum of 18–20°C amid radiative cooling typical of early autumn, with daytime highs near 30°C creating a diurnal range exceeding 10°C. Recent days have seen similar patterns with lows around 19–21°C and no incoming cold fronts or significant moisture, keeping trader consensus anchored on 16°C. Global model runs show tight agreement on minimal cloud cover and southerly flow, though exact station readings at resolution time introduce modest uncertainty reflected in the 15% odds for 13°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$405End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure regime are positioning Beijing's overnight low near 16°C for September 21, 2026, driving the 85% market-implied probability.** Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources project a minimum of 18–20°C amid radiative cooling typical of early autumn, with daytime highs near 30°C creating a diurnal range exceeding 10°C. Recent days have seen similar patterns with lows around 19–21°C and no incoming cold fronts or significant moisture, keeping trader consensus anchored on 16°C. Global model runs show tight agreement on minimal cloud cover and southerly flow, though exact station readings at resolution time introduce modest uncertainty reflected in the 15% odds for 13°C or below.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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