**Recent model consensus and observational data point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies as the main driver keeping implied probabilities clustered tightly around 13–15°C for Beijing’s official low on September 22.** Light southerly winds (3–6 mph) limit turbulent mixing while moderate humidity (50–60%) and dew points near 15–18°C slow the temperature drop, creating a narrow range between the 14°C and 15°C thresholds. Historical normals place the average low at 14.4°C, but recent warmer September patterns and urban heat-island effects have nudged trader sentiment toward the upper end of that band. Minor model spreads between GFS and ECMWF runs on wind speed and cloud timing account for the near-even odds across 12–15°C outcomes, with resolution hinging on the final China Meteorological Administration reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 22?
15°C 100%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$532 Vol.
$532 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
15°C 100%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$532 Vol.
$532 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
No
13°C
$0 Vol.
No
14°C
$0 Vol.
No
15°C
$160 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$141 Vol.
No
17°C
$126 Vol.
No
18°C
$45 Vol.
No
19°C
$26 Vol.
No
20°C
$5 Vol.
No
21°C
$15 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$15 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus and observational data point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies as the main driver keeping implied probabilities clustered tightly around 13–15°C for Beijing’s official low on September 22.** Light southerly winds (3–6 mph) limit turbulent mixing while moderate humidity (50–60%) and dew points near 15–18°C slow the temperature drop, creating a narrow range between the 14°C and 15°C thresholds. Historical normals place the average low at 14.4°C, but recent warmer September patterns and urban heat-island effects have nudged trader sentiment toward the upper end of that band. Minor model spreads between GFS and ECMWF runs on wind speed and cloud timing account for the near-even odds across 12–15°C outcomes, with resolution hinging on the final China Meteorological Administration reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$532End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus and observational data point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies as the main driver keeping implied probabilities clustered tightly around 13–15°C for Beijing’s official low on September 22.** Light southerly winds (3–6 mph) limit turbulent mixing while moderate humidity (50–60%) and dew points near 15–18°C slow the temperature drop, creating a narrow range between the 14°C and 15°C thresholds. Historical normals place the average low at 14.4°C, but recent warmer September patterns and urban heat-island effects have nudged trader sentiment toward the upper end of that band. Minor model spreads between GFS and ECMWF runs on wind speed and cloud timing account for the near-even odds across 12–15°C outcomes, with resolution hinging on the final China Meteorological Administration reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$532End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Recent model consensus and observational data point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies as the main driver keeping implied probabilities clustered tightly around 13–15°C for Beijing’s official low on September 22.** Light southerly winds (3–6 mph) limit turbulent mixing while moderate humidity (50–60%) and dew points near 15–18°C slow the temperature drop, creating a narrow range between the 14°C and 15°C thresholds. Historical normals place the average low at 14.4°C, but recent warmer September patterns and urban heat-island effects have nudged trader sentiment toward the upper end of that band. Minor model spreads between GFS and ECMWF runs on wind speed and cloud timing account for the near-even odds across 12–15°C outcomes, with resolution hinging on the final China Meteorological Administration reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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