Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, outpacing challengers in a contest that drew limited national attention. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 to R+30 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins trader consensus favoring Baird at 93.5%. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from a fragmented May primary but trails substantially in fundraising, with Baird holding a wide cash advantage. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually low Republican turnout, a late national political shift, or unexpected strength from independent candidate David Bokash, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such outcomes improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIN-04 House Election Winner
IN-04 House Election Winner
$12,594 Vol.
$12,594 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jim Baird (R)
94%
Drew Cox (D)
6%
$12,594 Vol.
$12,594 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jim Baird (R)
$9,278 Vol.
94%
Drew Cox (D)
$3,316 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, outpacing challengers in a contest that drew limited national attention. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 to R+30 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins trader consensus favoring Baird at 93.5%. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from a fragmented May primary but trails substantially in fundraising, with Baird holding a wide cash advantage. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually low Republican turnout, a late national political shift, or unexpected strength from independent candidate David Bokash, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$12,594End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, outpacing challengers in a contest that drew limited national attention. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 to R+30 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins trader consensus favoring Baird at 93.5%. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from a fragmented May primary but trails substantially in fundraising, with Baird holding a wide cash advantage. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually low Republican turnout, a late national political shift, or unexpected strength from independent candidate David Bokash, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,594End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, outpacing challengers in a contest that drew limited national attention. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 to R+30 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins trader consensus favoring Baird at 93.5%. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from a fragmented May primary but trails substantially in fundraising, with Baird holding a wide cash advantage. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually low Republican turnout, a late national political shift, or unexpected strength from independent candidate David Bokash, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such outcomes improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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