**Real-time observational data from Madrid weather stations, including those referenced by agencies like AEMET, have confirmed a daily maximum of 28°C on September 16, 2026, driving the near-certain market-implied probability for this outcome.** Forecasts from multiple numerical weather prediction models showed afternoon highs reaching this threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds, consistent with the day's observed conditions and slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.4°C. Minor model spread existed earlier but converged on 27–28°C as the day progressed, with no significant convective activity or measurement discrepancies reported. Resolution depends on official station maxima; while unlikely given current consensus, late verification adjustments, microclimate variations across sites, or post-processing corrections could theoretically shift the recorded value.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 16?
28°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
29°C <1%
$68,848 Vol.
$68,848 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
29°C <1%
$68,848 Vol.
$68,848 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
$7,561 Vol.
No
27°C
$9,451 Vol.
No
28°C
$15,438 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$14,802 Vol.
No
30°C
$12,844 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,521 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,748 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,719 Vol.
No
34°C
$279 Vol.
No
35°C
$373 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$112 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Real-time observational data from Madrid weather stations, including those referenced by agencies like AEMET, have confirmed a daily maximum of 28°C on September 16, 2026, driving the near-certain market-implied probability for this outcome.** Forecasts from multiple numerical weather prediction models showed afternoon highs reaching this threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds, consistent with the day's observed conditions and slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.4°C. Minor model spread existed earlier but converged on 27–28°C as the day progressed, with no significant convective activity or measurement discrepancies reported. Resolution depends on official station maxima; while unlikely given current consensus, late verification adjustments, microclimate variations across sites, or post-processing corrections could theoretically shift the recorded value.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$68,848End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Real-time observational data from Madrid weather stations, including those referenced by agencies like AEMET, have confirmed a daily maximum of 28°C on September 16, 2026, driving the near-certain market-implied probability for this outcome.** Forecasts from multiple numerical weather prediction models showed afternoon highs reaching this threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds, consistent with the day's observed conditions and slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.4°C. Minor model spread existed earlier but converged on 27–28°C as the day progressed, with no significant convective activity or measurement discrepancies reported. Resolution depends on official station maxima; while unlikely given current consensus, late verification adjustments, microclimate variations across sites, or post-processing corrections could theoretically shift the recorded value.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$68,848End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Real-time observational data from Madrid weather stations, including those referenced by agencies like AEMET, have confirmed a daily maximum of 28°C on September 16, 2026, driving the near-certain market-implied probability for this outcome.** Forecasts from multiple numerical weather prediction models showed afternoon highs reaching this threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds, consistent with the day's observed conditions and slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.4°C. Minor model spread existed earlier but converged on 27–28°C as the day progressed, with no significant convective activity or measurement discrepancies reported. Resolution depends on official station maxima; while unlikely given current consensus, late verification adjustments, microclimate variations across sites, or post-processing corrections could theoretically shift the recorded value.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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