Recent National Weather Service and model guidance positions Austin's September 20 high in the upper 90s, with consensus around 97–99°F under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. This reflects persistent warm advection and above-normal late-summer temperatures, well above the 1991–2020 average high near 90°F. Market-implied odds favor the 98–99°F bin at 47 percent, followed by 96–97°F at 28.5 percent, as traders weigh minor model spread on afternoon cloud cover and exact peak timing. Official observations from Austin-Bergstrom will resolve the market once the calendar day ends, with final forecast updates expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 20?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 20?
98-99°F 48%
96-97°F 29%
100-101°F 23%
102-103°F 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
29%
98-99°F
48%
100-101°F
23%
102-103°F
2%
104-105°F
1%
106-107°F
1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 48%
96-97°F 29%
100-101°F 23%
102-103°F 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
89°F or below
$111 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$142 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$15 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$241 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$413 Vol.
29%
98-99°F
$185 Vol.
48%
100-101°F
$385 Vol.
23%
102-103°F
$9 Vol.
2%
104-105°F
$99 Vol.
1%
106-107°F
$177 Vol.
1%
108°F or higher
$111 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance positions Austin's September 20 high in the upper 90s, with consensus around 97–99°F under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. This reflects persistent warm advection and above-normal late-summer temperatures, well above the 1991–2020 average high near 90°F. Market-implied odds favor the 98–99°F bin at 47 percent, followed by 96–97°F at 28.5 percent, as traders weigh minor model spread on afternoon cloud cover and exact peak timing. Official observations from Austin-Bergstrom will resolve the market once the calendar day ends, with final forecast updates expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,888End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance positions Austin's September 20 high in the upper 90s, with consensus around 97–99°F under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. This reflects persistent warm advection and above-normal late-summer temperatures, well above the 1991–2020 average high near 90°F. Market-implied odds favor the 98–99°F bin at 47 percent, followed by 96–97°F at 28.5 percent, as traders weigh minor model spread on afternoon cloud cover and exact peak timing. Official observations from Austin-Bergstrom will resolve the market once the calendar day ends, with final forecast updates expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,888End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance positions Austin's September 20 high in the upper 90s, with consensus around 97–99°F under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. This reflects persistent warm advection and above-normal late-summer temperatures, well above the 1991–2020 average high near 90°F. Market-implied odds favor the 98–99°F bin at 47 percent, followed by 96–97°F at 28.5 percent, as traders weigh minor model spread on afternoon cloud cover and exact peak timing. Official observations from Austin-Bergstrom will resolve the market once the calendar day ends, with final forecast updates expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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