Trader consensus strongly favors a 33°C high in Manila on September 18 due to official PAGASA forecasts projecting a daily maximum of 32–33°C amid southwest monsoon conditions, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms. This aligns with September climatology for the region, where typical highs range 30–32°C under high humidity and light winds that limit extreme heating yet permit afternoon peaks near 33°C before convective activity develops. Model runs and station observations, including a recorded 31.2°C maximum through early afternoon in nearby Quezon City, reinforce the narrow outcome band. Clearer skies or delayed storm development could push readings higher, while heavier rain earlier in the day might cap the peak below 33°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 18?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 18?
33°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$41,995 Vol.
$41,995 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$41,995 Vol.
$41,995 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
28°C or below
$674 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,315 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,545 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,435 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,218 Vol.
No
33°C
$15,866 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$3,607 Vol.
No
35°C
$2,627 Vol.
No
36°C
$1,254 Vol.
No
37°C
$199 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$255 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus strongly favors a 33°C high in Manila on September 18 due to official PAGASA forecasts projecting a daily maximum of 32–33°C amid southwest monsoon conditions, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms. This aligns with September climatology for the region, where typical highs range 30–32°C under high humidity and light winds that limit extreme heating yet permit afternoon peaks near 33°C before convective activity develops. Model runs and station observations, including a recorded 31.2°C maximum through early afternoon in nearby Quezon City, reinforce the narrow outcome band. Clearer skies or delayed storm development could push readings higher, while heavier rain earlier in the day might cap the peak below 33°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$41,995End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus strongly favors a 33°C high in Manila on September 18 due to official PAGASA forecasts projecting a daily maximum of 32–33°C amid southwest monsoon conditions, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms. This aligns with September climatology for the region, where typical highs range 30–32°C under high humidity and light winds that limit extreme heating yet permit afternoon peaks near 33°C before convective activity develops. Model runs and station observations, including a recorded 31.2°C maximum through early afternoon in nearby Quezon City, reinforce the narrow outcome band. Clearer skies or delayed storm development could push readings higher, while heavier rain earlier in the day might cap the peak below 33°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41,995End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus strongly favors a 33°C high in Manila on September 18 due to official PAGASA forecasts projecting a daily maximum of 32–33°C amid southwest monsoon conditions, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms. This aligns with September climatology for the region, where typical highs range 30–32°C under high humidity and light winds that limit extreme heating yet permit afternoon peaks near 33°C before convective activity develops. Model runs and station observations, including a recorded 31.2°C maximum through early afternoon in nearby Quezon City, reinforce the narrow outcome band. Clearer skies or delayed storm development could push readings higher, while heavier rain earlier in the day might cap the peak below 33°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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