Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates a stable high-pressure pattern over central Spain, with clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover expected to support a daily maximum near 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18. This aligns with the market’s heaviest trading on 28°C at 53% implied probability, followed by 27°C and 29°C. Dry conditions and seasonal solar angles typical of mid-September in Madrid’s continental climate favor efficient daytime heating without significant moisture or frontal activity to suppress temperatures. Recent September observations show above-average warmth earlier in the month, yet a gradual cooling trend and consistent short-range guidance have narrowed expectations to this narrow band. Final AEMET updates and overnight model runs before resolution remain the key variables that could shift outcomes slightly higher or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
28°C 55%
27°C 23%
29°C 19%
26°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
23%
28°C
55%
29°C
19%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 55%
27°C 23%
29°C 19%
26°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
$103 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$103 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$338 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$96 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$439 Vol.
3%
27°C
$2,371 Vol.
23%
28°C
$2,382 Vol.
55%
29°C
$3,367 Vol.
19%
30°C
$96 Vol.
1%
31°C
$128 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$338 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates a stable high-pressure pattern over central Spain, with clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover expected to support a daily maximum near 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18. This aligns with the market’s heaviest trading on 28°C at 53% implied probability, followed by 27°C and 29°C. Dry conditions and seasonal solar angles typical of mid-September in Madrid’s continental climate favor efficient daytime heating without significant moisture or frontal activity to suppress temperatures. Recent September observations show above-average warmth earlier in the month, yet a gradual cooling trend and consistent short-range guidance have narrowed expectations to this narrow band. Final AEMET updates and overnight model runs before resolution remain the key variables that could shift outcomes slightly higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,761End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates a stable high-pressure pattern over central Spain, with clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover expected to support a daily maximum near 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18. This aligns with the market’s heaviest trading on 28°C at 53% implied probability, followed by 27°C and 29°C. Dry conditions and seasonal solar angles typical of mid-September in Madrid’s continental climate favor efficient daytime heating without significant moisture or frontal activity to suppress temperatures. Recent September observations show above-average warmth earlier in the month, yet a gradual cooling trend and consistent short-range guidance have narrowed expectations to this narrow band. Final AEMET updates and overnight model runs before resolution remain the key variables that could shift outcomes slightly higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,761End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates a stable high-pressure pattern over central Spain, with clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal cloud cover expected to support a daily maximum near 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18. This aligns with the market’s heaviest trading on 28°C at 53% implied probability, followed by 27°C and 29°C. Dry conditions and seasonal solar angles typical of mid-September in Madrid’s continental climate favor efficient daytime heating without significant moisture or frontal activity to suppress temperatures. Recent September observations show above-average warmth earlier in the month, yet a gradual cooling trend and consistent short-range guidance have narrowed expectations to this narrow band. Final AEMET updates and overnight model runs before resolution remain the key variables that could shift outcomes slightly higher or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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