Forecasts from multiple meteorological models and agencies converge on a daily maximum of 24°C for Chengdu on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and a 20-40% chance of light rain that limits daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September in the Sichuan basin, where average highs hover near 25°C amid transitional monsoon conditions. The overwhelming market-implied odds for 24°C reflect real-time observational data and short-range model consensus from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration, with minimal spread across ensemble runs. Only an unforecasted clearing trend or localized heat island effect could realistically push readings to 25°C or above before evening cooling sets in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 18?
24°C 99.8%
25°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
$29,622 Vol.
$29,622 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 99.8%
25°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
$29,622 Vol.
$29,622 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
$539 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$221 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,637 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$4,302 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$7,286 Vol.
100%
25°C
$3,843 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,368 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$5,873 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,500 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$696 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$357 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from multiple meteorological models and agencies converge on a daily maximum of 24°C for Chengdu on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and a 20-40% chance of light rain that limits daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September in the Sichuan basin, where average highs hover near 25°C amid transitional monsoon conditions. The overwhelming market-implied odds for 24°C reflect real-time observational data and short-range model consensus from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration, with minimal spread across ensemble runs. Only an unforecasted clearing trend or localized heat island effect could realistically push readings to 25°C or above before evening cooling sets in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$29,622End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from multiple meteorological models and agencies converge on a daily maximum of 24°C for Chengdu on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and a 20-40% chance of light rain that limits daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September in the Sichuan basin, where average highs hover near 25°C amid transitional monsoon conditions. The overwhelming market-implied odds for 24°C reflect real-time observational data and short-range model consensus from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration, with minimal spread across ensemble runs. Only an unforecasted clearing trend or localized heat island effect could realistically push readings to 25°C or above before evening cooling sets in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$29,622End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from multiple meteorological models and agencies converge on a daily maximum of 24°C for Chengdu on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and a 20-40% chance of light rain that limits daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September in the Sichuan basin, where average highs hover near 25°C amid transitional monsoon conditions. The overwhelming market-implied odds for 24°C reflect real-time observational data and short-range model consensus from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration, with minimal spread across ensemble runs. Only an unforecasted clearing trend or localized heat island effect could realistically push readings to 25°C or above before evening cooling sets in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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