**Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate a high near 75–80°F for Chicago on September 10, 2026, with most guidance converging on the upper 70s.** North to northeast winds of 5–10 mph, persistent cloud cover, and light rain or drizzle have limited daytime heating following a frontal passage, keeping readings below the late-summer climatological average of roughly 78°F. Model consensus and official NWS point forecasts emphasize modest afternoon recovery to the mid-to-upper 70s rather than a push into the low 80s, consistent with the market’s strong 66.5% weighting on 78–79°F. Cooler, drier air advection and the stabilizing influence of the lake have further capped potential warmth, while the absence of strong southerly flow or clearing skies reduces upside risk to 80°F or higher. Updated guidance through the morning has reinforced this range, supporting the current trader consensus on the most probable bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 10?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 10?
78-79°F 74%
80-81°F 21%
76-77°F 4%
82-83°F 3%
$15,798 Vol.
$15,798 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
74%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 74%
80-81°F 21%
76-77°F 4%
82-83°F 3%
$15,798 Vol.
$15,798 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
69°F or below
$88 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$356 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$632 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$1,236 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$3,340 Vol.
4%
78-79°F
$5,656 Vol.
74%
80-81°F
$2,119 Vol.
21%
82-83°F
$1,000 Vol.
3%
84-85°F
$784 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$417 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$169 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate a high near 75–80°F for Chicago on September 10, 2026, with most guidance converging on the upper 70s.** North to northeast winds of 5–10 mph, persistent cloud cover, and light rain or drizzle have limited daytime heating following a frontal passage, keeping readings below the late-summer climatological average of roughly 78°F. Model consensus and official NWS point forecasts emphasize modest afternoon recovery to the mid-to-upper 70s rather than a push into the low 80s, consistent with the market’s strong 66.5% weighting on 78–79°F. Cooler, drier air advection and the stabilizing influence of the lake have further capped potential warmth, while the absence of strong southerly flow or clearing skies reduces upside risk to 80°F or higher. Updated guidance through the morning has reinforced this range, supporting the current trader consensus on the most probable bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$15,798End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate a high near 75–80°F for Chicago on September 10, 2026, with most guidance converging on the upper 70s.** North to northeast winds of 5–10 mph, persistent cloud cover, and light rain or drizzle have limited daytime heating following a frontal passage, keeping readings below the late-summer climatological average of roughly 78°F. Model consensus and official NWS point forecasts emphasize modest afternoon recovery to the mid-to-upper 70s rather than a push into the low 80s, consistent with the market’s strong 66.5% weighting on 78–79°F. Cooler, drier air advection and the stabilizing influence of the lake have further capped potential warmth, while the absence of strong southerly flow or clearing skies reduces upside risk to 80°F or higher. Updated guidance through the morning has reinforced this range, supporting the current trader consensus on the most probable bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,798End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate a high near 75–80°F for Chicago on September 10, 2026, with most guidance converging on the upper 70s.** North to northeast winds of 5–10 mph, persistent cloud cover, and light rain or drizzle have limited daytime heating following a frontal passage, keeping readings below the late-summer climatological average of roughly 78°F. Model consensus and official NWS point forecasts emphasize modest afternoon recovery to the mid-to-upper 70s rather than a push into the low 80s, consistent with the market’s strong 66.5% weighting on 78–79°F. Cooler, drier air advection and the stabilizing influence of the lake have further capped potential warmth, while the absence of strong southerly flow or clearing skies reduces upside risk to 80°F or higher. Updated guidance through the morning has reinforced this range, supporting the current trader consensus on the most probable bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions