**Current forecasts from Environment Canada and major numerical models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on a daytime high of 20°C for Toronto on September 14, 2026, under a mix of sun and cloud with light northwest winds.** This places the 20°C outcome as the clear market leader at 54% implied probability, with 19°C (30%) and 21°C (11%) capturing the typical forecast uncertainty range of ±1°C. A cooler, drier air mass has arrived behind a frontal passage on September 13, when highs reached 26°C. Northwest flow and rising surface pressure (around 1020–1023 hPa) are expected to limit daytime heating while clear to partly cloudy skies allow standard insolation. Hourly guidance shows temperatures climbing from morning lows near 12–13°C to afternoon peaks of 20–21°C before cooling again, consistent with late-summer climatology for the date (historical average high ~22°C). No significant model disagreement or rapid changes appear in the latest runs, supporting the tight clustering of probabilities around 19–21°C. The next Environment Canada update and any revised model outputs overnight will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on September 14?
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 14?
20°C 55%
19°C 28%
21°C 12%
18°C 6%
NEW
$12,603 Vol.
NEW
$12,603 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
6%
19°C
28%
20°C
55%
21°C
12%
22°C
3%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
20°C 55%
19°C 28%
21°C 12%
18°C 6%
NEW
$12,603 Vol.
NEW
$12,603 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
14°C or below
$223 Vol.
1%
15°C
$401 Vol.
1%
16°C
$297 Vol.
1%
17°C
$594 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,177 Vol.
6%
19°C
$2,729 Vol.
28%
20°C
$3,770 Vol.
55%
21°C
$1,672 Vol.
12%
22°C
$1,233 Vol.
3%
23°C
$154 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$352 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Environment Canada and major numerical models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on a daytime high of 20°C for Toronto on September 14, 2026, under a mix of sun and cloud with light northwest winds.** This places the 20°C outcome as the clear market leader at 54% implied probability, with 19°C (30%) and 21°C (11%) capturing the typical forecast uncertainty range of ±1°C.
A cooler, drier air mass has arrived behind a frontal passage on September 13, when highs reached 26°C. Northwest flow and rising surface pressure (around 1020–1023 hPa) are expected to limit daytime heating while clear to partly cloudy skies allow standard insolation. Hourly guidance shows temperatures climbing from morning lows near 12–13°C to afternoon peaks of 20–21°C before cooling again, consistent with late-summer climatology for the date (historical average high ~22°C).
No significant model disagreement or rapid changes appear in the latest runs, supporting the tight clustering of probabilities around 19–21°C. The next Environment Canada update and any revised model outputs overnight will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,603End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Environment Canada and major numerical models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on a daytime high of 20°C for Toronto on September 14, 2026, under a mix of sun and cloud with light northwest winds.** This places the 20°C outcome as the clear market leader at 54% implied probability, with 19°C (30%) and 21°C (11%) capturing the typical forecast uncertainty range of ±1°C.
A cooler, drier air mass has arrived behind a frontal passage on September 13, when highs reached 26°C. Northwest flow and rising surface pressure (around 1020–1023 hPa) are expected to limit daytime heating while clear to partly cloudy skies allow standard insolation. Hourly guidance shows temperatures climbing from morning lows near 12–13°C to afternoon peaks of 20–21°C before cooling again, consistent with late-summer climatology for the date (historical average high ~22°C).
No significant model disagreement or rapid changes appear in the latest runs, supporting the tight clustering of probabilities around 19–21°C. The next Environment Canada update and any revised model outputs overnight will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,603End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from Environment Canada and major numerical models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on a daytime high of 20°C for Toronto on September 14, 2026, under a mix of sun and cloud with light northwest winds.** This places the 20°C outcome as the clear market leader at 54% implied probability, with 19°C (30%) and 21°C (11%) capturing the typical forecast uncertainty range of ±1°C. A cooler, drier air mass has arrived behind a frontal passage on September 13, when highs reached 26°C. Northwest flow and rising surface pressure (around 1020–1023 hPa) are expected to limit daytime heating while clear to partly cloudy skies allow standard insolation. Hourly guidance shows temperatures climbing from morning lows near 12–13°C to afternoon peaks of 20–21°C before cooling again, consistent with late-summer climatology for the date (historical average high ~22°C). No significant model disagreement or rapid changes appear in the latest runs, supporting the tight clustering of probabilities around 19–21°C. The next Environment Canada update and any revised model outputs overnight will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions