Official measurements from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo reached a daily maximum of 25°C on September 13, with afternoon readings peaking near that threshold under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly flow before cooling into the evening. Multiple forecast models converged on this outcome days earlier, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September when daytime highs typically range 25–28°C absent strong high-pressure systems or frontal passages. Late-day observations now show temperatures falling below 24°C, eliminating any realistic pathway to higher values or a revision below the recorded peak. Trader consensus at near-certainty for exactly 25°C reflects this convergence of verified station data and the market’s resolution criteria tied to official daily maxima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 13?
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$95,420 Vol.
$95,420 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$95,420 Vol.
$95,420 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
21°C or below
$1,377 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,142 Vol.
No
23°C
$13,391 Vol.
No
24°C
$29,570 Vol.
No
25°C
$12,533 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$13,087 Vol.
No
27°C
$9,295 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,354 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,894 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,295 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$1,483 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official measurements from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo reached a daily maximum of 25°C on September 13, with afternoon readings peaking near that threshold under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly flow before cooling into the evening. Multiple forecast models converged on this outcome days earlier, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September when daytime highs typically range 25–28°C absent strong high-pressure systems or frontal passages. Late-day observations now show temperatures falling below 24°C, eliminating any realistic pathway to higher values or a revision below the recorded peak. Trader consensus at near-certainty for exactly 25°C reflects this convergence of verified station data and the market’s resolution criteria tied to official daily maxima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$95,420End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official measurements from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo reached a daily maximum of 25°C on September 13, with afternoon readings peaking near that threshold under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly flow before cooling into the evening. Multiple forecast models converged on this outcome days earlier, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September when daytime highs typically range 25–28°C absent strong high-pressure systems or frontal passages. Late-day observations now show temperatures falling below 24°C, eliminating any realistic pathway to higher values or a revision below the recorded peak. Trader consensus at near-certainty for exactly 25°C reflects this convergence of verified station data and the market’s resolution criteria tied to official daily maxima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$95,420End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official measurements from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo reached a daily maximum of 25°C on September 13, with afternoon readings peaking near that threshold under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly flow before cooling into the evening. Multiple forecast models converged on this outcome days earlier, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-September when daytime highs typically range 25–28°C absent strong high-pressure systems or frontal passages. Late-day observations now show temperatures falling below 24°C, eliminating any realistic pathway to higher values or a revision below the recorded peak. Trader consensus at near-certainty for exactly 25°C reflects this convergence of verified station data and the market’s resolution criteria tied to official daily maxima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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