**Forecast models and real-time observations position 26°C as the most probable daily high for Paris on September 13, 2026, aligning with the market's 56% implied probability for that outcome.** Multiple authoritative sources, including GFS-based guidance and local meteorological services, converge on a maximum of 26°C under westerly flow with partly cloudy skies transitioning to showers. Current afternoon readings have already reached 25–26°C in central Paris stations, with dew points and humidity supporting modest further rises before any cooling. This value sits above the September 13 climatological average high of roughly 22°C but remains well below historical extremes near 33°C. Light precipitation (30–70% chance in some runs) and moderate winds (5–15 km/h) are limiting stronger daytime heating, while stable high pressure prevents significant advection of warmer air. Nearby model runs show limited spread, with only modest upside risk to 27°C or downside to 25°C if showers arrive earlier or intensify. Traders appear to be weighting the tight consensus between official forecasts and observed trends, which explains the clear lead for 26°C over 25°C (24.5%) and 27°C (15.5%). No major model updates in the past 24 hours have shifted the central tendency, keeping the distribution narrow around this value as the day progresses toward resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 13?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 13?
26°C 54%
25°C 23%
27°C 17%
28°C 2%
$54,718 Vol.
$54,718 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
23%
26°C
54%
27°C
17%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 54%
25°C 23%
27°C 17%
28°C 2%
$54,718 Vol.
$54,718 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
22°C or below
$13,169 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$6,924 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,363 Vol.
1%
25°C
$6,705 Vol.
23%
26°C
$3,576 Vol.
54%
27°C
$8,679 Vol.
17%
28°C
$5,315 Vol.
2%
29°C
$2,707 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$494 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,623 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$1,163 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations position 26°C as the most probable daily high for Paris on September 13, 2026, aligning with the market's 56% implied probability for that outcome.** Multiple authoritative sources, including GFS-based guidance and local meteorological services, converge on a maximum of 26°C under westerly flow with partly cloudy skies transitioning to showers. Current afternoon readings have already reached 25–26°C in central Paris stations, with dew points and humidity supporting modest further rises before any cooling.
This value sits above the September 13 climatological average high of roughly 22°C but remains well below historical extremes near 33°C. Light precipitation (30–70% chance in some runs) and moderate winds (5–15 km/h) are limiting stronger daytime heating, while stable high pressure prevents significant advection of warmer air. Nearby model runs show limited spread, with only modest upside risk to 27°C or downside to 25°C if showers arrive earlier or intensify.
Traders appear to be weighting the tight consensus between official forecasts and observed trends, which explains the clear lead for 26°C over 25°C (24.5%) and 27°C (15.5%). No major model updates in the past 24 hours have shifted the central tendency, keeping the distribution narrow around this value as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$54,718End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations position 26°C as the most probable daily high for Paris on September 13, 2026, aligning with the market's 56% implied probability for that outcome.** Multiple authoritative sources, including GFS-based guidance and local meteorological services, converge on a maximum of 26°C under westerly flow with partly cloudy skies transitioning to showers. Current afternoon readings have already reached 25–26°C in central Paris stations, with dew points and humidity supporting modest further rises before any cooling.
This value sits above the September 13 climatological average high of roughly 22°C but remains well below historical extremes near 33°C. Light precipitation (30–70% chance in some runs) and moderate winds (5–15 km/h) are limiting stronger daytime heating, while stable high pressure prevents significant advection of warmer air. Nearby model runs show limited spread, with only modest upside risk to 27°C or downside to 25°C if showers arrive earlier or intensify.
Traders appear to be weighting the tight consensus between official forecasts and observed trends, which explains the clear lead for 26°C over 25°C (24.5%) and 27°C (15.5%). No major model updates in the past 24 hours have shifted the central tendency, keeping the distribution narrow around this value as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$54,718End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and real-time observations position 26°C as the most probable daily high for Paris on September 13, 2026, aligning with the market's 56% implied probability for that outcome.** Multiple authoritative sources, including GFS-based guidance and local meteorological services, converge on a maximum of 26°C under westerly flow with partly cloudy skies transitioning to showers. Current afternoon readings have already reached 25–26°C in central Paris stations, with dew points and humidity supporting modest further rises before any cooling. This value sits above the September 13 climatological average high of roughly 22°C but remains well below historical extremes near 33°C. Light precipitation (30–70% chance in some runs) and moderate winds (5–15 km/h) are limiting stronger daytime heating, while stable high pressure prevents significant advection of warmer air. Nearby model runs show limited spread, with only modest upside risk to 27°C or downside to 25°C if showers arrive earlier or intensify. Traders appear to be weighting the tight consensus between official forecasts and observed trends, which explains the clear lead for 26°C over 25°C (24.5%) and 27°C (15.5%). No major model updates in the past 24 hours have shifted the central tendency, keeping the distribution narrow around this value as the day progresses toward resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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