Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition
Elections·US Election

California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition

icon for California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition
Elections·US Election

California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

49% chance
Polymarket
NEW
49% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face competing ballot measures in November 2026, including this initiative constitutional amendment that would bar new state taxes on personal property such as retirement accounts and financial assets while restricting retroactive taxes based on pre-enactment conduct or residency. Trader consensus hovers near even odds because the measure directly targets provisions in a separate billionaire wealth tax proposal, with the higher-vote rule determining which prevails if both pass. Recent qualification of multiple tax-related initiatives, ongoing legal debates over retroactivity, and voter divisions on revenue tools for state programs sustain the balance. Upcoming campaign spending, polling on wealth taxation, and any last-minute endorsements could shift probabilities before election day.

Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face competing ballot measures in November 2026, including this initiative constitutional amendment that would bar new state taxes on personal property such as retirement accounts and financial assets while restricting retroactive taxes based on pre-enactment conduct or residency. Trader consensus hovers near even odds because the measure directly targets provisions in a separate billionaire wealth tax proposal, with the higher-vote rule determining which prevails if both pass. Recent qualification of multiple tax-related initiatives, ongoing legal debates over retroactivity, and voter divisions on revenue tools for state programs sustain the balance. Upcoming campaign spending, polling on wealth taxation, and any last-minute endorsements could shift probabilities before election day.

Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for California Tax Spend Audit Proposition

California Tax Spend Audit Proposition

50%
icon for California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?

California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?

39%
icon for California Public Campaign Financing Proposition

California Public Campaign Financing Proposition

44%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 49% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 49¢, the market collectively assigns a 49% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition" is 49% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 49% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.