Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market due to its status as an open Democratic-held Senate seat in a premier swing state that Donald Trump carried by under two points in 2024. The race between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers remains a toss-up per nonpartisan ratings, with recent polls showing margins within sampling error and voter priorities centered on the economy, cost of living, and candidate issue positions. El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory over a more moderate opponent introduced some uncertainty for Democrats, yet the contest’s competitiveness keeps it ahead of Republican-held battlegrounds. Alaska offers a credible challenge to incumbent Dan Sullivan from Mary Peltola under ranked-choice voting, while Maine features incumbent Susan Collins against Troy Jackson in another toss-up. Texas, Iowa, and Ohio present narrower Democratic paths amid stronger structural Republican advantages in those states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDems' best tossup Senate race?
Dems' best tossup Senate race?
Michigan 56%
Alaska 16%
Maine 15%
Texas 7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
56%
Alaska
16%
Maine
15%
Texas
7%
Iowa
3%
Ohio
3%
Michigan 56%
Alaska 16%
Maine 15%
Texas 7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$2,711 Vol.
56%
Alaska
$221 Vol.
16%
Maine
$226 Vol.
15%
Texas
$134 Vol.
7%
Iowa
$129 Vol.
3%
Ohio
$293 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market due to its status as an open Democratic-held Senate seat in a premier swing state that Donald Trump carried by under two points in 2024. The race between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers remains a toss-up per nonpartisan ratings, with recent polls showing margins within sampling error and voter priorities centered on the economy, cost of living, and candidate issue positions. El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory over a more moderate opponent introduced some uncertainty for Democrats, yet the contest’s competitiveness keeps it ahead of Republican-held battlegrounds. Alaska offers a credible challenge to incumbent Dan Sullivan from Mary Peltola under ranked-choice voting, while Maine features incumbent Susan Collins against Troy Jackson in another toss-up. Texas, Iowa, and Ohio present narrower Democratic paths amid stronger structural Republican advantages in those states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$3,714End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market due to its status as an open Democratic-held Senate seat in a premier swing state that Donald Trump carried by under two points in 2024. The race between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers remains a toss-up per nonpartisan ratings, with recent polls showing margins within sampling error and voter priorities centered on the economy, cost of living, and candidate issue positions. El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory over a more moderate opponent introduced some uncertainty for Democrats, yet the contest’s competitiveness keeps it ahead of Republican-held battlegrounds. Alaska offers a credible challenge to incumbent Dan Sullivan from Mary Peltola under ranked-choice voting, while Maine features incumbent Susan Collins against Troy Jackson in another toss-up. Texas, Iowa, and Ohio present narrower Democratic paths amid stronger structural Republican advantages in those states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,714End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michigan stands out as the leading outcome in this market due to its status as an open Democratic-held Senate seat in a premier swing state that Donald Trump carried by under two points in 2024. The race between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers remains a toss-up per nonpartisan ratings, with recent polls showing margins within sampling error and voter priorities centered on the economy, cost of living, and candidate issue positions. El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory over a more moderate opponent introduced some uncertainty for Democrats, yet the contest’s competitiveness keeps it ahead of Republican-held battlegrounds. Alaska offers a credible challenge to incumbent Dan Sullivan from Mary Peltola under ranked-choice voting, while Maine features incumbent Susan Collins against Troy Jackson in another toss-up. Texas, Iowa, and Ohio present narrower Democratic paths amid stronger structural Republican advantages in those states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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