Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona's 9th congressional district due to the seat's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 31-point margin there in 2024. Gosar secured both the uncontested July 21 Republican primary and a 65% general election victory in the prior cycle, while forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Dani Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, faces structural barriers including Gosar's substantial cash-on-hand advantage exceeding $270,000 and limited name recognition in the western Arizona district encompassing parts of Yuma and Maricopa County. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Gosar aligns with these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a significant scandal or national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
$26,127 Vol.
$26,127 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
95%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
4%
$26,127 Vol.
$26,127 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Paul Gosar (R)
$10,243 Vol.
95%
Dani Sterbinsky (D)
$15,884 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona's 9th congressional district due to the seat's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 31-point margin there in 2024. Gosar secured both the uncontested July 21 Republican primary and a 65% general election victory in the prior cycle, while forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Dani Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, faces structural barriers including Gosar's substantial cash-on-hand advantage exceeding $270,000 and limited name recognition in the western Arizona district encompassing parts of Yuma and Maricopa County. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Gosar aligns with these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a significant scandal or national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,127End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona's 9th congressional district due to the seat's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 31-point margin there in 2024. Gosar secured both the uncontested July 21 Republican primary and a 65% general election victory in the prior cycle, while forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Dani Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, faces structural barriers including Gosar's substantial cash-on-hand advantage exceeding $270,000 and limited name recognition in the western Arizona district encompassing parts of Yuma and Maricopa County. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Gosar aligns with these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a significant scandal or national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,127End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in Arizona's 9th congressional district due to the seat's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 31-point margin there in 2024. Gosar secured both the uncontested July 21 Republican primary and a 65% general election victory in the prior cycle, while forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Dani Sterbinsky, a Navy veteran, faces structural barriers including Gosar's substantial cash-on-hand advantage exceeding $270,000 and limited name recognition in the western Arizona district encompassing parts of Yuma and Maricopa County. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Gosar aligns with these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a significant scandal or national partisan shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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