Recent dry conditions following the UK's record-hot summer of 2026, marked by prolonged high pressure and below-average rainfall, have tilted trader sentiment toward drier outcomes for London precipitation, with the 30-40 mm and sub-30 mm bins leading at 27.0% and 26.5% implied probability. The long-term September average near 50 mm reflects typical Atlantic frontal influences, yet lingering anticyclonic patterns and soil moisture deficits can suppress convective rainfall early in the month. Model divergence on the timing of seasonal transition to westerly flows keeps probabilities spread across 30-60 mm bins, with potential for late-month increases if low-pressure systems strengthen.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in London in September?
Precipitation in London in September?
50-60mm 28%
30-40mm 27%
<30mm 27%
60-70mm 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<30mm
27%
30-40mm
27%
40-50mm
15%
50-60mm
19%
60-70mm
18%
70-80mm
<1%
80mm+
4%
50-60mm 28%
30-40mm 27%
<30mm 27%
60-70mm 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<30mm
$3,425 Vol.
27%
30-40mm
$438 Vol.
27%
40-50mm
$368 Vol.
15%
50-60mm
$317 Vol.
19%
60-70mm
$280 Vol.
18%
70-80mm
$139 Vol.
<1%
80mm+
$144 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent dry conditions following the UK's record-hot summer of 2026, marked by prolonged high pressure and below-average rainfall, have tilted trader sentiment toward drier outcomes for London precipitation, with the 30-40 mm and sub-30 mm bins leading at 27.0% and 26.5% implied probability. The long-term September average near 50 mm reflects typical Atlantic frontal influences, yet lingering anticyclonic patterns and soil moisture deficits can suppress convective rainfall early in the month. Model divergence on the timing of seasonal transition to westerly flows keeps probabilities spread across 30-60 mm bins, with potential for late-month increases if low-pressure systems strengthen.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 AM ET
Volume
$5,111End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent dry conditions following the UK's record-hot summer of 2026, marked by prolonged high pressure and below-average rainfall, have tilted trader sentiment toward drier outcomes for London precipitation, with the 30-40 mm and sub-30 mm bins leading at 27.0% and 26.5% implied probability. The long-term September average near 50 mm reflects typical Atlantic frontal influences, yet lingering anticyclonic patterns and soil moisture deficits can suppress convective rainfall early in the month. Model divergence on the timing of seasonal transition to westerly flows keeps probabilities spread across 30-60 mm bins, with potential for late-month increases if low-pressure systems strengthen.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,111End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent dry conditions following the UK's record-hot summer of 2026, marked by prolonged high pressure and below-average rainfall, have tilted trader sentiment toward drier outcomes for London precipitation, with the 30-40 mm and sub-30 mm bins leading at 27.0% and 26.5% implied probability. The long-term September average near 50 mm reflects typical Atlantic frontal influences, yet lingering anticyclonic patterns and soil moisture deficits can suppress convective rainfall early in the month. Model divergence on the timing of seasonal transition to westerly flows keeps probabilities spread across 30-60 mm bins, with potential for late-month increases if low-pressure systems strengthen.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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