Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.6% market-implied odds for “No.” Decades of refined orbital tracking and ground-based telescopic data place the annual probability of such an event at roughly once per several millennia, reinforcing trader consensus around verified absence of threats rather than speculation. While a previously undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically alter outcomes, current detection thresholds and observational coverage make these scenarios highly improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1% chance
$117,044 Vol.
$117,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1% chance
$117,044 Vol.
$117,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.6% market-implied odds for “No.” Decades of refined orbital tracking and ground-based telescopic data place the annual probability of such an event at roughly once per several millennia, reinforcing trader consensus around verified absence of threats rather than speculation. While a previously undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically alter outcomes, current detection thresholds and observational coverage make these scenarios highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$117,044End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.6% market-implied odds for “No.” Decades of refined orbital tracking and ground-based telescopic data place the annual probability of such an event at roughly once per several millennia, reinforcing trader consensus around verified absence of threats rather than speculation. While a previously undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically alter outcomes, current detection thresholds and observational coverage make these scenarios highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$117,044End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, driving the 98.6% market-implied odds for “No.” Decades of refined orbital tracking and ground-based telescopic data place the annual probability of such an event at roughly once per several millennia, reinforcing trader consensus around verified absence of threats rather than speculation. While a previously undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically alter outcomes, current detection thresholds and observational coverage make these scenarios highly improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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