Recent polling in Sergipe shows a fragmented field for the two Senate seats, with Delegado André David frequently topping or tying first place while André Moura, Eduardo Amorim, Rogério Carvalho, and Delegado Alessandro remain tightly grouped behind. High shares of undecided and blank/null voters—often exceeding 20% and reaching 70% in spontaneous responses—keep second-place positioning fluid across surveys from August and early September. Party coalitions, regional strongholds, and overlapping support among center-right and opposition figures sustain the closeness. Late-campaign events such as debates, coalition adjustments, or turnout shifts in key municipalities could reorder the second spot before the October 4 vote. Trader pricing reflects this ongoing uncertainty rather than any decisive lead.