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icon for Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar
Política·Brasil

Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar

icon for Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar
Política·Brasil

Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar

André do Prado 35.9%

Marina Silva 26%

Simone Tebet 15%

Guilherme Derrite 14%

Polymarket

$45,357 Vol.

André do Prado 35.9%

Marina Silva 26%

Simone Tebet 15%

Guilherme Derrite 14%

Polymarket

$45,357 Vol.

icon for André do Prado

André do Prado

$6,227 Vol.

36%

icon for Marina Silva

Marina Silva

$10,865 Vol.

26%

icon for Simone Tebet

Simone Tebet

$10,541 Vol.

15%

icon for Guilherme Derrite

Guilherme Derrite

$7,259 Vol.

14%

icon for Salles

Salles

$5,220 Vol.

3%

icon for Marcio Alves

Marcio Alves

$411 Vol.

1%

icon for Ednelson Cesaretti

Ednelson Cesaretti

$580 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Rufino

Geraldo Rufino

$528 Vol.

<1%

icon for Petter Maahs

Petter Maahs

$757 Vol.

<1%

icon for Weller Gonçalves

Weller Gonçalves

$813 Vol.

<1%

icon for William Teixeira

William Teixeira

$686 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dra. Eliana Ferreira

Dra. Eliana Ferreira

$457 Vol.

<1%

icon for Maíra de Souza

Maíra de Souza

$406 Vol.

<1%

icon for Soninha Francine

Soninha Francine

$608 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Recent polling shows a tight contest among top contenders for the two São Paulo Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with each voter selecting up to two candidates.** A September 8 Quaest survey placed Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) tied at 14%, Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12%, André do Prado (PL) at 7%, and Ricardo Salles (Novo) at 3%, amid roughly 45% undecided or blank/null responses. Earlier Datafolha and Quaest releases from July–August reflected similar clustering within margins of error. Marina Silva and Simone Tebet run on the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition tied to Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid, drawing support from PT-aligned and center-left voters. Derrite (PP) and Prado (PL) represent the Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) grouping, emphasizing security and state-government alignment. Salles campaigns more independently on the right. The two-vote system, elevated indecision, and polarized national alignments have sustained the close positioning for second place. Trader pricing reflects this balance, with modest recent shifts following the start of free broadcast time in late August. Further separation would likely require clearer polling trends, major endorsements, debates, or late developments altering visibility or turnout among key blocs before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$45,357
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Recent polling shows a tight contest among top contenders for the two São Paulo Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with each voter selecting up to two candidates.** A September 8 Quaest survey placed Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) tied at 14%, Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12%, André do Prado (PL) at 7%, and Ricardo Salles (Novo) at 3%, amid roughly 45% undecided or blank/null responses. Earlier Datafolha and Quaest releases from July–August reflected similar clustering within margins of error. Marina Silva and Simone Tebet run on the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition tied to Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid, drawing support from PT-aligned and center-left voters. Derrite (PP) and Prado (PL) represent the Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) grouping, emphasizing security and state-government alignment. Salles campaigns more independently on the right. The two-vote system, elevated indecision, and polarized national alignments have sustained the close positioning for second place. Trader pricing reflects this balance, with modest recent shifts following the start of free broadcast time in late August. Further separation would likely require clearer polling trends, major endorsements, debates, or late developments altering visibility or turnout among key blocs before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$45,357
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 14 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "André do Prado" con 36%, seguido de "Marina Silva" con 26%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 36¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 36% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar" ha generado $45.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Aug 17, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar", explora los 14 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar" es "André do Prado" con 36%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 36% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Marina Silva" con 26%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Elecciones al Senado de São Paulo: 2º lugar" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.