Recent polls, including the latest Quaest survey from early September 2026, show a tight contest for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) clustered at 12-14% in combined first- and second-choice intentions amid 26% undecided voters and 19% blanks or nulls. Free electoral airtime that began in late August has lifted visibility for the frontrunners without producing separation, while voters select two distinct names and many remain undecided in spontaneous responses. This fragmented field, combined with structural factors like the October 4 single-round vote and alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, sustains close implied probabilities for first place among the top contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGuilherme Derrite 50%
Simone Tebet 27.1%
Marina Silva 20%
André do Prado 3.8%
$42,531 Vol.
$42,531 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Guilherme Derrite
50%
Simone Tebet
27%
Marina Silva
20%
André do Prado
4%
Salles
2%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Guilherme Derrite 50%
Simone Tebet 27.1%
Marina Silva 20%
André do Prado 3.8%
$42,531 Vol.
$42,531 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Guilherme Derrite
$26,426 Vol.
50%
Simone Tebet
$2,011 Vol.
27%
Marina Silva
$4,976 Vol.
20%
André do Prado
$2,379 Vol.
4%
Salles
$1,951 Vol.
2%
Soninha Francine
$474 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$383 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$733 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$396 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$552 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$419 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$613 Vol.
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$737 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$480 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls, including the latest Quaest survey from early September 2026, show a tight contest for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) clustered at 12-14% in combined first- and second-choice intentions amid 26% undecided voters and 19% blanks or nulls. Free electoral airtime that began in late August has lifted visibility for the frontrunners without producing separation, while voters select two distinct names and many remain undecided in spontaneous responses. This fragmented field, combined with structural factors like the October 4 single-round vote and alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, sustains close implied probabilities for first place among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volumen
$42,531Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls, including the latest Quaest survey from early September 2026, show a tight contest for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) clustered at 12-14% in combined first- and second-choice intentions amid 26% undecided voters and 19% blanks or nulls. Free electoral airtime that began in late August has lifted visibility for the frontrunners without producing separation, while voters select two distinct names and many remain undecided in spontaneous responses. This fragmented field, combined with structural factors like the October 4 single-round vote and alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, sustains close implied probabilities for first place among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$42,531Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including the latest Quaest survey from early September 2026, show a tight contest for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) clustered at 12-14% in combined first- and second-choice intentions amid 26% undecided voters and 19% blanks or nulls. Free electoral airtime that began in late August has lifted visibility for the frontrunners without producing separation, while voters select two distinct names and many remain undecided in spontaneous responses. This fragmented field, combined with structural factors like the October 4 single-round vote and alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, sustains close implied probabilities for first place among the top contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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