**Traders see a fragmented contest for second place in Paraná’s two-seat Senate race, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) holding the highest implied probability at 34.5% amid technical ties among several contenders.** Recent August–early September 2026 polls from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas consistently show Álvaro Dias (MDB) leading for first, while Curi, Filipe Barros (PL), Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) cluster closely for the remaining position, often within margins of error and separated by single digits in consolidated first-and-second-preference scenarios. High undecided and blank/null shares (frequently 30–50%) keep outcomes fluid. Dallagnol’s ongoing eligibility challenges add uncertainty, while vote fragmentation on the right and regional strongholds for Gleisi and Curi sustain the tight positioning. Upcoming polling releases or candidate alliances before the October election could shift probabilities by clarifying second-preference flows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAlexandre Curi 35%
Filipe Barros 23%
Deltan Dallagnol 20%
Gleisi 10.4%
$32,117 Vol.
$32,117 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Alexandre Curi
35%
Filipe Barros
23%
Deltan Dallagnol
20%
Gleisi
10%
Cristina Reis Graeml
4%
Marcelo Marcelino
<1%
Dr. Rosinha
<1%
Joaquim do MLB
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
<1%
Alexandre Curi 35%
Filipe Barros 23%
Deltan Dallagnol 20%
Gleisi 10.4%
$32,117 Vol.
$32,117 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Alexandre Curi
$4,971 Vol.
35%
Filipe Barros
$10,942 Vol.
23%
Deltan Dallagnol
$7,329 Vol.
20%
Gleisi
$4,901 Vol.
10%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$1,523 Vol.
4%
Marcelo Marcelino
$605 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Rosinha
$574 Vol.
<1%
Joaquim do MLB
$712 Vol.
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
$560 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Traders see a fragmented contest for second place in Paraná’s two-seat Senate race, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) holding the highest implied probability at 34.5% amid technical ties among several contenders.** Recent August–early September 2026 polls from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas consistently show Álvaro Dias (MDB) leading for first, while Curi, Filipe Barros (PL), Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) cluster closely for the remaining position, often within margins of error and separated by single digits in consolidated first-and-second-preference scenarios. High undecided and blank/null shares (frequently 30–50%) keep outcomes fluid. Dallagnol’s ongoing eligibility challenges add uncertainty, while vote fragmentation on the right and regional strongholds for Gleisi and Curi sustain the tight positioning. Upcoming polling releases or candidate alliances before the October election could shift probabilities by clarifying second-preference flows.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volumen
$32,117Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Traders see a fragmented contest for second place in Paraná’s two-seat Senate race, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) holding the highest implied probability at 34.5% amid technical ties among several contenders.** Recent August–early September 2026 polls from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas consistently show Álvaro Dias (MDB) leading for first, while Curi, Filipe Barros (PL), Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) cluster closely for the remaining position, often within margins of error and separated by single digits in consolidated first-and-second-preference scenarios. High undecided and blank/null shares (frequently 30–50%) keep outcomes fluid. Dallagnol’s ongoing eligibility challenges add uncertainty, while vote fragmentation on the right and regional strongholds for Gleisi and Curi sustain the tight positioning. Upcoming polling releases or candidate alliances before the October election could shift probabilities by clarifying second-preference flows.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$32,117Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Traders see a fragmented contest for second place in Paraná’s two-seat Senate race, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) holding the highest implied probability at 34.5% amid technical ties among several contenders.** Recent August–early September 2026 polls from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas consistently show Álvaro Dias (MDB) leading for first, while Curi, Filipe Barros (PL), Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) cluster closely for the remaining position, often within margins of error and separated by single digits in consolidated first-and-second-preference scenarios. High undecided and blank/null shares (frequently 30–50%) keep outcomes fluid. Dallagnol’s ongoing eligibility challenges add uncertainty, while vote fragmentation on the right and regional strongholds for Gleisi and Curi sustain the tight positioning. Upcoming polling releases or candidate alliances before the October election could shift probabilities by clarifying second-preference flows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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