Trader consensus pricing "No" at 96.2% reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice investigation into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, with a federal judge finding no evidence of criminal conduct beyond political friction. Powell completed his chairmanship in May 2026 and transitioned to a Board of Governors role through at least 2028 without facing charges or custody. Recent property transactions and public appearances further align with a standard post-tenure path for a former Fed official. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to an unforeseen reopening of probes by new authorities or unrelated personal matters, though market-implied odds assign these low probability given the prior judicial dismissal and lack of fresh catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
4% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
4% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus pricing "No" at 96.2% reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice investigation into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, with a federal judge finding no evidence of criminal conduct beyond political friction. Powell completed his chairmanship in May 2026 and transitioned to a Board of Governors role through at least 2028 without facing charges or custody. Recent property transactions and public appearances further align with a standard post-tenure path for a former Fed official. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to an unforeseen reopening of probes by new authorities or unrelated personal matters, though market-implied odds assign these low probability given the prior judicial dismissal and lack of fresh catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volumen
$5,693Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus pricing "No" at 96.2% reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice investigation into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, with a federal judge finding no evidence of criminal conduct beyond political friction. Powell completed his chairmanship in May 2026 and transitioned to a Board of Governors role through at least 2028 without facing charges or custody. Recent property transactions and public appearances further align with a standard post-tenure path for a former Fed official. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to an unforeseen reopening of probes by new authorities or unrelated personal matters, though market-implied odds assign these low probability given the prior judicial dismissal and lack of fresh catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$5,693Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus pricing "No" at 96.2% reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice investigation into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, with a federal judge finding no evidence of criminal conduct beyond political friction. Powell completed his chairmanship in May 2026 and transitioned to a Board of Governors role through at least 2028 without facing charges or custody. Recent property transactions and public appearances further align with a standard post-tenure path for a former Fed official. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to an unforeseen reopening of probes by new authorities or unrelated personal matters, though market-implied odds assign these low probability given the prior judicial dismissal and lack of fresh catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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