Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in a U.S.-Israeli strike, anchors trader consensus on his continued role through year-end. The IRGC’s backing and the regime’s emphasis on institutional continuity during active conflict have sustained this positioning, even as Mojtaba remains out of public view due to reported injuries. Recent reports from August and early September note ongoing questions about his health and decision-making capacity, yet official channels describe him as directing policy from secure locations. Alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or interim council figures face structural barriers under the current clerical-security framework, while outcomes like regime collapse or exile-led transitions register low probability absent verified institutional breakdown or major escalations within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?
¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 84.8%
Sin Jefe de Estado 4.5%
Reza Pahlavi 2.9%
Mahmoud Ahmadineyad 1.3%
$39,365,155 Vol.
$39,365,155 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
85%
Sin Jefe de Estado
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadineyad
1%
Alireza Arafi
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
<1%
Hassan Khomeini
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 84.8%
Sin Jefe de Estado 4.5%
Reza Pahlavi 2.9%
Mahmoud Ahmadineyad 1.3%
$39,365,155 Vol.
$39,365,155 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
85%
Sin Jefe de Estado
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadineyad
1%
Alireza Arafi
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
<1%
Hassan Khomeini
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in a U.S.-Israeli strike, anchors trader consensus on his continued role through year-end. The IRGC’s backing and the regime’s emphasis on institutional continuity during active conflict have sustained this positioning, even as Mojtaba remains out of public view due to reported injuries. Recent reports from August and early September note ongoing questions about his health and decision-making capacity, yet official channels describe him as directing policy from secure locations. Alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or interim council figures face structural barriers under the current clerical-security framework, while outcomes like regime collapse or exile-led transitions register low probability absent verified institutional breakdown or major escalations within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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