Recent US and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and 2026 have severely degraded enrichment infrastructure at key sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reporting on October 27, 2026, no observable repair or reconstruction efforts since June 2025. The agency remains unable to verify the status of approximately 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium or confirm the absence of diversion under Iran's safeguards obligations, while inspectors lack access to affected locations. Ongoing regional mediation involving Oman, Qatar, and Egypt seeks renewed inspections and limited sanctions relief through revived frameworks, though Iran has conditioned cooperation on broader diplomatic concessions. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring no nuclear weapon acquisition before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from covert weaponization at undeclared sites, accelerated reconstruction following any sanctions easing, or rapid escalation if diplomacy collapses.