Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions center on airstrikes, naval actions in the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions rather than ground operations, following February 2026 strikes and a June memorandum of understanding that paused major hostilities while deferring nuclear and missile issues. Intermittent exchanges continued into September, including recent U.S. strikes on coastal targets and Iranian responses, yet statements from President Trump point to winding down the conflict after November midterms without broader escalation. Military assessments highlight the high troop requirements and risks of any mainland invasion, favoring limited raids or pressure tactics instead. Diplomatic mediation through Qatar and Pakistan, combined with economic leverage and congressional funding constraints, has sustained trader expectations that a full U.S. invasion remains improbable before 2027.