SpaceX has completed just two Starship integrated flights in 2026 through mid-September, with Flight 13 on July 24 marking the first V3 vehicle deployment of Starlink prototypes in a suborbital profile. Traders price a low launch count because Flight 14—the first orbital attempt carrying operational V3 satellites—remains delayed to September 28 pending FAA approval, and subsequent flights face sequential technical and regulatory gates including booster catch attempts, sustained engine relights, and heat-shield performance. Limited pad infrastructure at Starbase, ongoing vehicle iteration, and typical FAA licensing timelines constrain cadence even after orbital success, making rapid scaling to double-digit flights improbable before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
<5 58%
5-6 44%
7-8 3.0%
>16 1.1%
$513,812 Vol.
$513,812 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
55%
5-6
44%
7-8
3%
9-10
<1%
11-12
1%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
<5 58%
5-6 44%
7-8 3.0%
>16 1.1%
$513,812 Vol.
$513,812 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$102,844 Vol.
55%
5-6
$117,407 Vol.
44%
7-8
$161,675 Vol.
3%
9-10
$63,399 Vol.
<1%
11-12
$10,757 Vol.
1%
13-14
$11,020 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$32,047 Vol.
<1%
>16
$14,663 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed just two Starship integrated flights in 2026 through mid-September, with Flight 13 on July 24 marking the first V3 vehicle deployment of Starlink prototypes in a suborbital profile. Traders price a low launch count because Flight 14—the first orbital attempt carrying operational V3 satellites—remains delayed to September 28 pending FAA approval, and subsequent flights face sequential technical and regulatory gates including booster catch attempts, sustained engine relights, and heat-shield performance. Limited pad infrastructure at Starbase, ongoing vehicle iteration, and typical FAA licensing timelines constrain cadence even after orbital success, making rapid scaling to double-digit flights improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$513,812Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed just two Starship integrated flights in 2026 through mid-September, with Flight 13 on July 24 marking the first V3 vehicle deployment of Starlink prototypes in a suborbital profile. Traders price a low launch count because Flight 14—the first orbital attempt carrying operational V3 satellites—remains delayed to September 28 pending FAA approval, and subsequent flights face sequential technical and regulatory gates including booster catch attempts, sustained engine relights, and heat-shield performance. Limited pad infrastructure at Starbase, ongoing vehicle iteration, and typical FAA licensing timelines constrain cadence even after orbital success, making rapid scaling to double-digit flights improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$513,812Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX has completed just two Starship integrated flights in 2026 through mid-September, with Flight 13 on July 24 marking the first V3 vehicle deployment of Starlink prototypes in a suborbital profile. Traders price a low launch count because Flight 14—the first orbital attempt carrying operational V3 satellites—remains delayed to September 28 pending FAA approval, and subsequent flights face sequential technical and regulatory gates including booster catch attempts, sustained engine relights, and heat-shield performance. Limited pad infrastructure at Starbase, ongoing vehicle iteration, and typical FAA licensing timelines constrain cadence even after orbital success, making rapid scaling to double-digit flights improbable before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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