SpaceX's recent Starship test flights have driven the 68.5% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. Multiple successful Super Heavy booster catches with the launch tower, including consecutive demonstrations in 2026, combined with hardware and software upgrades for reliable relights, have validated rapid booster recovery. Flight 13's intact Ship heatshield and controlled reentry further reduced key technical risks, while Flight 14's targeted September 22 orbital insertion and Starlink V3 deployment mark the shift from suborbital testing toward operational reuse cycles. The primary remaining hurdles involve upper-stage catch attempts and rapid reflight validation, with SpaceX's aggressive iteration and tower infrastructure supporting trader consensus on a 2027 timeline.