SpaceX’s Falcon 9 fleet has sustained a cadence of roughly 10–12 launches per month through early September 2026, reaching about 106 missions year-to-date and driving the strong 82% market-implied odds for a 140–159 total. Starlink deployments from Vandenberg SLC-4E and Cape SLC-40 account for the bulk of activity, supported by high booster reuse rates and dual-pad operations that historically enable 140–160 annual flights when regulatory and weather constraints remain manageable. Limited Falcon Heavy missions and early Starship test flights add modest upside, while pad maintenance windows, range conflicts, and potential anomalies could trim the pace in the final quarter. Traders appear to view the current trajectory and pad throughput as the dominant factors favoring the central band over higher or lower outcomes.