Trader consensus prices the "No" outcome for the Elon Bull Run Combo at 92.8% because the three required conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and nine or more SpaceX Starship launches reaching space by December 31, 2026—remain distant with limited time left. Musk’s current valuation near $929 billion faces volatility from equity unlocks and market swings that have not produced the needed surge, while Starship testing continues to encounter delays and low cadence. A new child announcement also lacks supporting developments. Even modest progress on any leg would still leave the others improbable, though a sharp rally in Tesla or SpaceX shares combined with accelerated orbital flights could theoretically shift the market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
10% probabilidad
$12,423 Vol.
$12,423 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
10% probabilidad
$12,423 Vol.
$12,423 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus prices the "No" outcome for the Elon Bull Run Combo at 92.8% because the three required conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and nine or more SpaceX Starship launches reaching space by December 31, 2026—remain distant with limited time left. Musk’s current valuation near $929 billion faces volatility from equity unlocks and market swings that have not produced the needed surge, while Starship testing continues to encounter delays and low cadence. A new child announcement also lacks supporting developments. Even modest progress on any leg would still leave the others improbable, though a sharp rally in Tesla or SpaceX shares combined with accelerated orbital flights could theoretically shift the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volumen
$12,423Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus prices the "No" outcome for the Elon Bull Run Combo at 92.8% because the three required conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and nine or more SpaceX Starship launches reaching space by December 31, 2026—remain distant with limited time left. Musk’s current valuation near $929 billion faces volatility from equity unlocks and market swings that have not produced the needed surge, while Starship testing continues to encounter delays and low cadence. A new child announcement also lacks supporting developments. Even modest progress on any leg would still leave the others improbable, though a sharp rally in Tesla or SpaceX shares combined with accelerated orbital flights could theoretically shift the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Volumen
$12,423Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices the "No" outcome for the Elon Bull Run Combo at 92.8% because the three required conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirmation of another child, and nine or more SpaceX Starship launches reaching space by December 31, 2026—remain distant with limited time left. Musk’s current valuation near $929 billion faces volatility from equity unlocks and market swings that have not produced the needed surge, while Starship testing continues to encounter delays and low cadence. A new child announcement also lacks supporting developments. Even modest progress on any leg would still leave the others improbable, though a sharp rally in Tesla or SpaceX shares combined with accelerated orbital flights could theoretically shift the market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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