**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5 kt or greater bolide in 2026 through mid-September and the lack of cataloged near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of producing such an airburst.** NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and Sentry monitoring, along with ESA risk lists, show only small fireballs this year—such as a recent ~0.25 kt event over Ohio—well below the 5 kt TNT threshold. Meter-scale impactors historically produce ~5 kt events roughly once per year on average, but most occur over oceans or remote areas, and refined orbits plus expanded surveys have not identified any qualifying threats for the remainder of 2026. Traders weigh the remaining ~3.5 months against this base rate and ongoing surveillance, with no model runs or new detections shifting the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
Sí
27% probabilidad
$314,099 Vol.
$314,099 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
27% probabilidad
$314,099 Vol.
$314,099 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5 kt or greater bolide in 2026 through mid-September and the lack of cataloged near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of producing such an airburst.** NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and Sentry monitoring, along with ESA risk lists, show only small fireballs this year—such as a recent ~0.25 kt event over Ohio—well below the 5 kt TNT threshold. Meter-scale impactors historically produce ~5 kt events roughly once per year on average, but most occur over oceans or remote areas, and refined orbits plus expanded surveys have not identified any qualifying threats for the remainder of 2026. Traders weigh the remaining ~3.5 months against this base rate and ongoing surveillance, with no model runs or new detections shifting the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$314,099Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5 kt or greater bolide in 2026 through mid-September and the lack of cataloged near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of producing such an airburst.** NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and Sentry monitoring, along with ESA risk lists, show only small fireballs this year—such as a recent ~0.25 kt event over Ohio—well below the 5 kt TNT threshold. Meter-scale impactors historically produce ~5 kt events roughly once per year on average, but most occur over oceans or remote areas, and refined orbits plus expanded surveys have not identified any qualifying threats for the remainder of 2026. Traders weigh the remaining ~3.5 months against this base rate and ongoing surveillance, with no model runs or new detections shifting the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$314,099Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5 kt or greater bolide in 2026 through mid-September and the lack of cataloged near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of producing such an airburst.** NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and Sentry monitoring, along with ESA risk lists, show only small fireballs this year—such as a recent ~0.25 kt event over Ohio—well below the 5 kt TNT threshold. Meter-scale impactors historically produce ~5 kt events roughly once per year on average, but most occur over oceans or remote areas, and refined orbits plus expanded surveys have not identified any qualifying threats for the remainder of 2026. Traders weigh the remaining ~3.5 months against this base rate and ongoing surveillance, with no model runs or new detections shifting the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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