Recent orbital success on Starship Flight 14 in late September 2026, which included the first payload deployment of 26 Starlink V3 satellites, has advanced development but left both the Super Heavy booster and upper-stage Ship splashing down without tower catches or reflights. Elon Musk has targeted possible booster and Ship recovery attempts on Flight 15 followed by initial reflights by early 2027, yet the remaining technical hurdles—reliable ship catch, heat shield performance under repeated orbital reentry, in-space propellant transfer, and rapid turnaround of the full stack—make completion of full reusability before year-end improbable. Trader consensus at 73.5% for “No” reflects these compressed timelines and SpaceX’s history of iterative delays in achieving operational reuse milestones.