Advanced NASA JPL Sentry and ESA monitoring systems have identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy during 2026, underpinning the 87.5% market-implied probability of no major meteor strike. Recent safe close approaches by meter-scale bodies such as 2026 RW1, detected hours before atmospheric entry by Mount Lemmon Survey telescopes, highlight improving automated tracking with machine-learning algorithms yet confirm only sub-threshold events. Updated risk lists show potential impacts years away with cumulative probabilities below 1 in hundreds, while ongoing surveys refine orbits without elevating alerts. Remaining catalysts include continued LSST observations and radar tracking unlikely to shift consensus before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
Sí
13% probabilidad
$202,895 Vol.
$202,895 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
13% probabilidad
$202,895 Vol.
$202,895 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Advanced NASA JPL Sentry and ESA monitoring systems have identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy during 2026, underpinning the 87.5% market-implied probability of no major meteor strike. Recent safe close approaches by meter-scale bodies such as 2026 RW1, detected hours before atmospheric entry by Mount Lemmon Survey telescopes, highlight improving automated tracking with machine-learning algorithms yet confirm only sub-threshold events. Updated risk lists show potential impacts years away with cumulative probabilities below 1 in hundreds, while ongoing surveys refine orbits without elevating alerts. Remaining catalysts include continued LSST observations and radar tracking unlikely to shift consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volumen
$202,895Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Advanced NASA JPL Sentry and ESA monitoring systems have identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy during 2026, underpinning the 87.5% market-implied probability of no major meteor strike. Recent safe close approaches by meter-scale bodies such as 2026 RW1, detected hours before atmospheric entry by Mount Lemmon Survey telescopes, highlight improving automated tracking with machine-learning algorithms yet confirm only sub-threshold events. Updated risk lists show potential impacts years away with cumulative probabilities below 1 in hundreds, while ongoing surveys refine orbits without elevating alerts. Remaining catalysts include continued LSST observations and radar tracking unlikely to shift consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$202,895Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Advanced NASA JPL Sentry and ESA monitoring systems have identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy during 2026, underpinning the 87.5% market-implied probability of no major meteor strike. Recent safe close approaches by meter-scale bodies such as 2026 RW1, detected hours before atmospheric entry by Mount Lemmon Survey telescopes, highlight improving automated tracking with machine-learning algorithms yet confirm only sub-threshold events. Updated risk lists show potential impacts years away with cumulative probabilities below 1 in hundreds, while ongoing surveys refine orbits without elevating alerts. Remaining catalysts include continued LSST observations and radar tracking unlikely to shift consensus before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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