Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 27°C high in Madrid on September 17 reflects current observational data and model agreement showing peak temperatures reaching that threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies. Stable high-pressure conditions, typical of the region's continental Mediterranean climate in mid-September, have supported efficient daytime heating with light northeasterly winds and negligible precipitation risk, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 average high of 26.2°C. Official agencies such as AEMET and short-range forecasts from GFS runs confirm afternoon maxima near this level without significant model spread. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized measurement differences at the reference station could still shift the final recorded value, though current conditions make substantial deviation unlikely before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 17 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 17 de septiembre?
27°C 100.0%
21°C o menos <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$55,128 Vol.
$55,128 Vol.
17 sep 2026
21°C o menos
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Sí
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31 °C o más
No
27°C 100.0%
21°C o menos <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$55,128 Vol.
$55,128 Vol.
17 sep 2026
21°C o menos
$863 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,612 Vol.
No
23°C
$820 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,717 Vol.
No
25°C
$8,582 Vol.
No
26°C
$11,405 Vol.
No
27°C
$11,634 Vol.
Sí
28°C
$12,570 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,908 Vol.
No
30°C
$676 Vol.
No
31 °C o más
$1,342 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 27°C high in Madrid on September 17 reflects current observational data and model agreement showing peak temperatures reaching that threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies. Stable high-pressure conditions, typical of the region's continental Mediterranean climate in mid-September, have supported efficient daytime heating with light northeasterly winds and negligible precipitation risk, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 average high of 26.2°C. Official agencies such as AEMET and short-range forecasts from GFS runs confirm afternoon maxima near this level without significant model spread. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized measurement differences at the reference station could still shift the final recorded value, though current conditions make substantial deviation unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$55,128Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 27°C high in Madrid on September 17 reflects current observational data and model agreement showing peak temperatures reaching that threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies. Stable high-pressure conditions, typical of the region's continental Mediterranean climate in mid-September, have supported efficient daytime heating with light northeasterly winds and negligible precipitation risk, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 average high of 26.2°C. Official agencies such as AEMET and short-range forecasts from GFS runs confirm afternoon maxima near this level without significant model spread. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized measurement differences at the reference station could still shift the final recorded value, though current conditions make substantial deviation unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$55,128Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 27°C high in Madrid on September 17 reflects current observational data and model agreement showing peak temperatures reaching that threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies. Stable high-pressure conditions, typical of the region's continental Mediterranean climate in mid-September, have supported efficient daytime heating with light northeasterly winds and negligible precipitation risk, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 average high of 26.2°C. Official agencies such as AEMET and short-range forecasts from GFS runs confirm afternoon maxima near this level without significant model spread. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized measurement differences at the reference station could still shift the final recorded value, though current conditions make substantial deviation unlikely before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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