Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and multiple numerical models converge on a maximum of 33–34°C for Madrid on September 23 under clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly or northeasterly winds, and negligible moisture. These stable high-pressure conditions and dry air mass support efficient daytime heating without strong advection or cloud cover to suppress temperatures. Market-implied odds heavily favor 34°C at 74 percent, reflecting trader assessment that the official observation will reach the upper end of the narrow forecast envelope rather than the 33°C lower bound. Minor model spread and the precise timing of peak heating introduce limited uncertainty around the exact recorded value, but current guidance shows little support for 35°C or higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 23 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 23 de septiembre?
34°C 77%
33°C 20%
35°C 5%
32°C <1%
$29,867 Vol.
$29,867 Vol.
23 sep 2026
28°C o menos
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
20%
34°C
77%
35°C
5%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C o más
<1%
34°C 77%
33°C 20%
35°C 5%
32°C <1%
$29,867 Vol.
$29,867 Vol.
23 sep 2026
28°C o menos
$1,091 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$100 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,161 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$4,476 Vol.
1%
33°C
$6,585 Vol.
20%
34°C
$7,877 Vol.
77%
35°C
$4,327 Vol.
5%
36°C
$2,680 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$100 Vol.
<1%
38°C o más
$356 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and multiple numerical models converge on a maximum of 33–34°C for Madrid on September 23 under clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly or northeasterly winds, and negligible moisture. These stable high-pressure conditions and dry air mass support efficient daytime heating without strong advection or cloud cover to suppress temperatures. Market-implied odds heavily favor 34°C at 74 percent, reflecting trader assessment that the official observation will reach the upper end of the narrow forecast envelope rather than the 33°C lower bound. Minor model spread and the precise timing of peak heating introduce limited uncertainty around the exact recorded value, but current guidance shows little support for 35°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$29,867Fecha de finalización
23 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and multiple numerical models converge on a maximum of 33–34°C for Madrid on September 23 under clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly or northeasterly winds, and negligible moisture. These stable high-pressure conditions and dry air mass support efficient daytime heating without strong advection or cloud cover to suppress temperatures. Market-implied odds heavily favor 34°C at 74 percent, reflecting trader assessment that the official observation will reach the upper end of the narrow forecast envelope rather than the 33°C lower bound. Minor model spread and the precise timing of peak heating introduce limited uncertainty around the exact recorded value, but current guidance shows little support for 35°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$29,867Fecha de finalización
23 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and multiple numerical models converge on a maximum of 33–34°C for Madrid on September 23 under clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly or northeasterly winds, and negligible moisture. These stable high-pressure conditions and dry air mass support efficient daytime heating without strong advection or cloud cover to suppress temperatures. Market-implied odds heavily favor 34°C at 74 percent, reflecting trader assessment that the official observation will reach the upper end of the narrow forecast envelope rather than the 33°C lower bound. Minor model spread and the precise timing of peak heating introduce limited uncertainty around the exact recorded value, but current guidance shows little support for 35°C or higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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