**Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and other models points to a high near 65°F for Chicago on September 25, driven by persistent cloud cover and easterly winds off Lake Michigan that limit daytime heating.** These conditions suppress maximum temperatures below the 1991–2020 average of ~73°F, favoring the market’s leading 66–69°F bins (combined ~89% implied probability). Recent model runs show minimal disagreement, with highs clustered in the mid-60s amid overcast skies and light east-northeast flow. Historical analogs for similar late-September setups confirm subdued warming when lake-modified air dominates. Traders are weighting the near-term forecast stability, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could still nudge the outcome within the narrow 64–71°F range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 25 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 25 de septiembre?
68-69°F 42%
66-67°F 30%
70-71°F 18%
64-65°F 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
25 sep 2026
57°F o menos
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
30%
68-69°F
42%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
<1%
76°F o más
<1%
68-69°F 42%
66-67°F 30%
70-71°F 18%
64-65°F 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
25 sep 2026
57°F o menos
$153 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$95 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$121 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$68 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$97 Vol.
7%
66-67°F
$1,896 Vol.
30%
68-69°F
$292 Vol.
42%
70-71°F
$872 Vol.
18%
72-73°F
$636 Vol.
3%
74-75°F
$280 Vol.
<1%
76°F o más
$100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and other models points to a high near 65°F for Chicago on September 25, driven by persistent cloud cover and easterly winds off Lake Michigan that limit daytime heating.**
These conditions suppress maximum temperatures below the 1991–2020 average of ~73°F, favoring the market’s leading 66–69°F bins (combined ~89% implied probability). Recent model runs show minimal disagreement, with highs clustered in the mid-60s amid overcast skies and light east-northeast flow. Historical analogs for similar late-September setups confirm subdued warming when lake-modified air dominates. Traders are weighting the near-term forecast stability, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could still nudge the outcome within the narrow 64–71°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 23, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volumen
$4,611Fecha de finalización
25 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2026, 3:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and other models points to a high near 65°F for Chicago on September 25, driven by persistent cloud cover and easterly winds off Lake Michigan that limit daytime heating.**
These conditions suppress maximum temperatures below the 1991–2020 average of ~73°F, favoring the market’s leading 66–69°F bins (combined ~89% implied probability). Recent model runs show minimal disagreement, with highs clustered in the mid-60s amid overcast skies and light east-northeast flow. Historical analogs for similar late-September setups confirm subdued warming when lake-modified air dominates. Traders are weighting the near-term forecast stability, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could still nudge the outcome within the narrow 64–71°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$4,611Fecha de finalización
25 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2026, 3:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47de9d...**Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and other models points to a high near 65°F for Chicago on September 25, driven by persistent cloud cover and easterly winds off Lake Michigan that limit daytime heating.** These conditions suppress maximum temperatures below the 1991–2020 average of ~73°F, favoring the market’s leading 66–69°F bins (combined ~89% implied probability). Recent model runs show minimal disagreement, with highs clustered in the mid-60s amid overcast skies and light east-northeast flow. Historical analogs for similar late-September setups confirm subdued warming when lake-modified air dominates. Traders are weighting the near-term forecast stability, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could still nudge the outcome within the narrow 64–71°F range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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