North Korea's recent actions, including extensive border fortifications with mines and fences plus removal of unification references from party documents, signal a deliberate strategy of political and physical separation rather than offensive preparations. South Korean officials report monitoring limited troop incursions and missile activity while backing U.S. diplomatic outreach, including potential Trump-Kim engagement ahead of the November APEC summit. These patterns align with Pyongyang's focus on nuclear and naval expansion alongside routine provocations, without evidence of the large-scale mobilization needed for invasion. Traders assign a 97% implied probability to no invasion before 2027 based on this sustained deterrence posture and open channels for de-escalation. Late shifts could still arise from miscalculations during joint exercises, sudden leadership changes, or breakdown in ongoing diplomatic signals.