Recent polls conducted after Israel's party lists closed show Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading or nearly tying Likud in most surveys, with projections of 22–25 seats that align with vote shares clustered in the 18–22% range. This keeps the market tightly balanced across adjacent bins, as traders weigh polling variance against competition from Naftali Bennett’s Together list and smaller centrist or right-leaning parties. Surplus-vote agreements between Yashar and The Democrats, alongside similar pacts elsewhere, aim to minimize wasted votes within the opposition bloc ahead of the October 27 election. The outcome remains sensitive to undecided voters and threshold dynamics for smaller lists, with no single dominant shift in the past week to separate the leading probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert<16 % 23%
20-22% 21%
24 %+ 13%
22-24% 10%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
<16 %
20%
16-18%
43%
18-20%
42%
20-22%
21%
22-24%
13%
24 %+
13%
<16 % 23%
20-22% 21%
24 %+ 13%
22-24% 10%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
<16 %
$16 Vol.
20%
16-18%
$19 Vol.
43%
18-20%
$40 Vol.
42%
20-22%
$0 Vol.
21%
22-24%
$56 Vol.
13%
24 %+
$101 Vol.
13%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls conducted after Israel's party lists closed show Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading or nearly tying Likud in most surveys, with projections of 22–25 seats that align with vote shares clustered in the 18–22% range. This keeps the market tightly balanced across adjacent bins, as traders weigh polling variance against competition from Naftali Bennett’s Together list and smaller centrist or right-leaning parties. Surplus-vote agreements between Yashar and The Democrats, alongside similar pacts elsewhere, aim to minimize wasted votes within the opposition bloc ahead of the October 27 election. The outcome remains sensitive to undecided voters and threshold dynamics for smaller lists, with no single dominant shift in the past week to separate the leading probabilities.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Volumen
$232Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls conducted after Israel's party lists closed show Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading or nearly tying Likud in most surveys, with projections of 22–25 seats that align with vote shares clustered in the 18–22% range. This keeps the market tightly balanced across adjacent bins, as traders weigh polling variance against competition from Naftali Bennett’s Together list and smaller centrist or right-leaning parties. Surplus-vote agreements between Yashar and The Democrats, alongside similar pacts elsewhere, aim to minimize wasted votes within the opposition bloc ahead of the October 27 election. The outcome remains sensitive to undecided voters and threshold dynamics for smaller lists, with no single dominant shift in the past week to separate the leading probabilities.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volumen
$232Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls conducted after Israel's party lists closed show Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading or nearly tying Likud in most surveys, with projections of 22–25 seats that align with vote shares clustered in the 18–22% range. This keeps the market tightly balanced across adjacent bins, as traders weigh polling variance against competition from Naftali Bennett’s Together list and smaller centrist or right-leaning parties. Surplus-vote agreements between Yashar and The Democrats, alongside similar pacts elsewhere, aim to minimize wasted votes within the opposition bloc ahead of the October 27 election. The outcome remains sensitive to undecided voters and threshold dynamics for smaller lists, with no single dominant shift in the past week to separate the leading probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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