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icon for Wahl in Israel: Stimmenanteil der Einheit?
Politik·Israel

Wahl in Israel: Stimmenanteil der Einheit?

icon for Wahl in Israel: Stimmenanteil der Einheit?
Politik·Israel

Wahl in Israel: Stimmenanteil der Einheit?

<0,5 % 95.5%

0,5-0,75 % 1.0%

0,75-1 % <1%

1-2 % <1%

Polymarket
NEU

<0,5 % 95.5%

0,5-0,75 % 1.0%

0,75-1 % <1%

1-2 % <1%

Polymarket
NEU

<0,5 %

$596 Vol.

95%

0,5-0,75 %

$162 Vol.

1%

0,75-1 %

$109 Vol.

1%

1-2 %

$112 Vol.

1%

2 %+

$176 Vol.

<1%

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Unity's withdrawal from the October 2026 Knesset election on September 4 has driven the market's assessment of its vote share. The right-wing party, launched in August by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein after splitting from Likud, cited persistently low polling below the electoral threshold and failed merger talks, including with Blue and White, as reasons for exiting before candidate list submissions closed. Recent surveys showed it receiving under 2% in earlier tests, with no path to viability amid fragmentation among larger lists such as Likud, Yashar, and Together. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to under 0.5% because the party will not appear on ballots. Late re-entry or procedural reversals remain the only narrow scenarios that could alter this outcome before election day.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volumen
$1,155
Enddatum
27. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Unity's withdrawal from the October 2026 Knesset election on September 4 has driven the market's assessment of its vote share. The right-wing party, launched in August by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein after splitting from Likud, cited persistently low polling below the electoral threshold and failed merger talks, including with Blue and White, as reasons for exiting before candidate list submissions closed. Recent surveys showed it receiving under 2% in earlier tests, with no path to viability amid fragmentation among larger lists such as Likud, Yashar, and Together. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to under 0.5% because the party will not appear on ballots. Late re-entry or procedural reversals remain the only narrow scenarios that could alter this outcome before election day.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Unity party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Unity's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Unity passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Unity contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Unity merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volumen
$1,155
Enddatum
27. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird Gemeinsam bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 7-9 % der Stimmen erhalten?

Wird Gemeinsam bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 7-9 % der Stimmen erhalten?

37%
Ja
icon for Wird die Gemeinsame Liste bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 5,5-6,5 % der Stimmen erhalten?

Wird die Gemeinsame Liste bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 5,5-6,5 % der Stimmen erhalten?

34%
Ja
icon for Wird Yisrael Beiteinu bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 8 % oder mehr der Stimmen erhalten?

Wird Yisrael Beiteinu bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 8 % oder mehr der Stimmen erhalten?

27%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wahl in Israel: Stimmenanteil der Einheit?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „<0,5 %" mit 95%, gefolgt von „0,5-0,75 %" mit 1%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 95¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 95% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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