Traders assign a 98.6% probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, reflecting the absence of any official policy signals, military preparations, or congressional actions indicating such a course. Bilateral ties continue to center on diplomatic coordination, law enforcement collaboration on border security and drug trafficking, and trade under established agreements, with no escalatory rhetoric or force deployments from either side. Historical patterns of U.S.-Mexico engagement prioritize negotiation and joint operations over direct conflict. Extreme unforeseen crises, such as a sudden breakdown in diplomatic channels or unprecedented security threats, remain the only plausible variables that could prompt reassessment before year-end.