Russia’s ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine continues to tie down the bulk of its conventional forces and resources through September 2026, with Ukrainian long-range strikes targeting Russian infrastructure and no verified large-scale troop movements or mobilizations indicating preparation for a new conventional invasion. Western intelligence assessments, including U.S. warnings delivered in Moscow, highlight risks of limited hybrid provocations or probes against Baltic states or Poland to test NATO Article 5 cohesion, but consistently note Russia lacks capacity for opening a second major front this year. NATO air policing responses and alliance military buildup further reinforce deterrence. These factors underpin the strong trader consensus against a new invasion before year-end, consistent with historical patterns where resource-constrained aggressors rarely launch additional major campaigns mid-conflict.