Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 41.4% for the best Text Arena Math model by end of November, driven by Claude Opus and Fable variants topping recent arena.ai math leaderboards with Elo scores above 1530. This edge stems from September 2026 demonstrations of advanced formal reasoning, including Claude's computer-verified formalization of Fermat’s last theorem and progress on long-standing problems like the Riemann hypothesis. OpenAI and Google trail at 17.5% each, reflecting competitive but lower arena rankings despite their own advances in agentic math solving and high AIME/GPQA scores. The 45-55% range across many outcomes highlights ongoing uncertainty, as new model releases or benchmark updates through November could shift relative positioning among frontier labs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 39.1%
Google 18%
OpenAI 18%
Z.ai 6.8%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
Anthropic
39%
18%
OpenAI
18%
Z.ai
7%
ByteDance
6%
Nvidia
4%
Meituan
4%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Microsoft
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Meta
1%
MiniMax
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
Thinky
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Anthropic 39.1%
Google 18%
OpenAI 18%
Z.ai 6.8%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
Anthropic
$2,535 Vol.
39%
$1,240 Vol.
18%
OpenAI
$1,112 Vol.
18%
Z.ai
$173 Vol.
7%
ByteDance
$379 Vol.
6%
Nvidia
$479 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$1,346 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$115 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$100 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$121 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$129 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$133 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$133 Vol.
1%
Meta
$133 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$133 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$148 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$165 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$120 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$133 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$133 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$133 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 41.4% for the best Text Arena Math model by end of November, driven by Claude Opus and Fable variants topping recent arena.ai math leaderboards with Elo scores above 1530. This edge stems from September 2026 demonstrations of advanced formal reasoning, including Claude's computer-verified formalization of Fermat’s last theorem and progress on long-standing problems like the Riemann hypothesis. OpenAI and Google trail at 17.5% each, reflecting competitive but lower arena rankings despite their own advances in agentic math solving and high AIME/GPQA scores. The 45-55% range across many outcomes highlights ongoing uncertainty, as new model releases or benchmark updates through November could shift relative positioning among frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volumen
$9,092Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 41.4% for the best Text Arena Math model by end of November, driven by Claude Opus and Fable variants topping recent arena.ai math leaderboards with Elo scores above 1530. This edge stems from September 2026 demonstrations of advanced formal reasoning, including Claude's computer-verified formalization of Fermat’s last theorem and progress on long-standing problems like the Riemann hypothesis. OpenAI and Google trail at 17.5% each, reflecting competitive but lower arena rankings despite their own advances in agentic math solving and high AIME/GPQA scores. The 45-55% range across many outcomes highlights ongoing uncertainty, as new model releases or benchmark updates through November could shift relative positioning among frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$9,092Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 41.4% for the best Text Arena Math model by end of November, driven by Claude Opus and Fable variants topping recent arena.ai math leaderboards with Elo scores above 1530. This edge stems from September 2026 demonstrations of advanced formal reasoning, including Claude's computer-verified formalization of Fermat’s last theorem and progress on long-standing problems like the Riemann hypothesis. OpenAI and Google trail at 17.5% each, reflecting competitive but lower arena rankings despite their own advances in agentic math solving and high AIME/GPQA scores. The 45-55% range across many outcomes highlights ongoing uncertainty, as new model releases or benchmark updates through November could shift relative positioning among frontier labs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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