Anthropic's dominant 71.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Fable series models consistently leading Text Arena math leaderboards through September 2026, with top Elo ratings around 1537 in crowd-sourced evaluations of mathematical reasoning, problem-solving, and competition-style tasks. Recent releases have demonstrated strong capabilities on benchmarks like AIME, HMMT, and frontier math sets, outpacing rivals in human preference arenas focused on step-by-step explanations and novel problems. OpenAI and Google trail at 7% and 10.9% respectively due to competitive but secondary showings on MATH-500 and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Alibaba register minimal traction in Western arena data. With no major model launches imminent before late October, trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in specialized math arenas rather than broader capability metrics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 71%
Google 11.3%
OpenAI 7%
Alibaba 1.0%
$38,155 Vol.
$38,155 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
71%
11%
OpenAI
7%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meta
1%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 71%
Google 11.3%
OpenAI 7%
Alibaba 1.0%
$38,155 Vol.
$38,155 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
$15,532 Vol.
71%
$1,765 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$6,905 Vol.
7%
Alibaba
$982 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,002 Vol.
1%
Meta
$1,105 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,132 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$964 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$942 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$753 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$778 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,033 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$694 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$492 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$745 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$653 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$649 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$773 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$662 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$593 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's dominant 71.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Fable series models consistently leading Text Arena math leaderboards through September 2026, with top Elo ratings around 1537 in crowd-sourced evaluations of mathematical reasoning, problem-solving, and competition-style tasks. Recent releases have demonstrated strong capabilities on benchmarks like AIME, HMMT, and frontier math sets, outpacing rivals in human preference arenas focused on step-by-step explanations and novel problems. OpenAI and Google trail at 7% and 10.9% respectively due to competitive but secondary showings on MATH-500 and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Alibaba register minimal traction in Western arena data. With no major model launches imminent before late October, trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in specialized math arenas rather than broader capability metrics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volumen
$38,155Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's dominant 71.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Fable series models consistently leading Text Arena math leaderboards through September 2026, with top Elo ratings around 1537 in crowd-sourced evaluations of mathematical reasoning, problem-solving, and competition-style tasks. Recent releases have demonstrated strong capabilities on benchmarks like AIME, HMMT, and frontier math sets, outpacing rivals in human preference arenas focused on step-by-step explanations and novel problems. OpenAI and Google trail at 7% and 10.9% respectively due to competitive but secondary showings on MATH-500 and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Alibaba register minimal traction in Western arena data. With no major model launches imminent before late October, trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in specialized math arenas rather than broader capability metrics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$38,155Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's dominant 71.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Fable series models consistently leading Text Arena math leaderboards through September 2026, with top Elo ratings around 1537 in crowd-sourced evaluations of mathematical reasoning, problem-solving, and competition-style tasks. Recent releases have demonstrated strong capabilities on benchmarks like AIME, HMMT, and frontier math sets, outpacing rivals in human preference arenas focused on step-by-step explanations and novel problems. OpenAI and Google trail at 7% and 10.9% respectively due to competitive but secondary showings on MATH-500 and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Alibaba register minimal traction in Western arena data. With no major model launches imminent before late October, trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in specialized math arenas rather than broader capability metrics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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