Traders see a fragmented outlook for the next Claude Opus release because Anthropic’s recent cadence shows rapid but unpredictable iteration within the 5-series, with Opus 5 shipping July 24 after Sonnet 5 and Fable 5.1 arriving September 1. Unverified social-media rumors point to an Opus 5.2 window of September 17–18 or late month, yet no official model card, benchmark leak, or API listing has surfaced as of mid-September. Platform updates on September 16 focused on unified chat, Claude Docs, and Slides rather than new large-language-model capabilities, underscoring that engineering resources may currently prioritize integration over frontier model refreshes. With no single date exceeding 15.5% implied probability, the market reflects uncertainty over whether competitive pressure from OpenAI or internal benchmarks will trigger an imminent drop or push the timeline past September 30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September 26%
25. September 16%
24. September 14%
30. September 14%
NEU
NEU
17. Sep. 2026
17. September
3%
18. September
6%
19. September
1%
20. September
5%
21. September
9%
22. September
9%
23. September
9%
24. September
14%
25. September
16%
26. September
3%
27. September
2%
28. September
7%
29. September
7%
30. September
14%
Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September
17%
Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September 26%
25. September 16%
24. September 14%
30. September 14%
NEU
NEU
17. Sep. 2026
17. September
$478 Vol.
3%
18. September
$39 Vol.
6%
19. September
$486 Vol.
1%
20. September
$507 Vol.
5%
21. September
$39 Vol.
9%
22. September
$39 Vol.
9%
23. September
$58 Vol.
9%
24. September
$119 Vol.
14%
25. September
$60 Vol.
16%
26. September
$486 Vol.
3%
27. September
$486 Vol.
2%
28. September
$58 Vol.
7%
29. September
$102 Vol.
7%
30. September
$139 Vol.
14%
Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September
$139 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see a fragmented outlook for the next Claude Opus release because Anthropic’s recent cadence shows rapid but unpredictable iteration within the 5-series, with Opus 5 shipping July 24 after Sonnet 5 and Fable 5.1 arriving September 1. Unverified social-media rumors point to an Opus 5.2 window of September 17–18 or late month, yet no official model card, benchmark leak, or API listing has surfaced as of mid-September. Platform updates on September 16 focused on unified chat, Claude Docs, and Slides rather than new large-language-model capabilities, underscoring that engineering resources may currently prioritize integration over frontier model refreshes. With no single date exceeding 15.5% implied probability, the market reflects uncertainty over whether competitive pressure from OpenAI or internal benchmarks will trigger an imminent drop or push the timeline past September 30.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$3,387Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see a fragmented outlook for the next Claude Opus release because Anthropic’s recent cadence shows rapid but unpredictable iteration within the 5-series, with Opus 5 shipping July 24 after Sonnet 5 and Fable 5.1 arriving September 1. Unverified social-media rumors point to an Opus 5.2 window of September 17–18 or late month, yet no official model card, benchmark leak, or API listing has surfaced as of mid-September. Platform updates on September 16 focused on unified chat, Claude Docs, and Slides rather than new large-language-model capabilities, underscoring that engineering resources may currently prioritize integration over frontier model refreshes. With no single date exceeding 15.5% implied probability, the market reflects uncertainty over whether competitive pressure from OpenAI or internal benchmarks will trigger an imminent drop or push the timeline past September 30.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,387Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a fragmented outlook for the next Claude Opus release because Anthropic’s recent cadence shows rapid but unpredictable iteration within the 5-series, with Opus 5 shipping July 24 after Sonnet 5 and Fable 5.1 arriving September 1. Unverified social-media rumors point to an Opus 5.2 window of September 17–18 or late month, yet no official model card, benchmark leak, or API listing has surfaced as of mid-September. Platform updates on September 16 focused on unified chat, Claude Docs, and Slides rather than new large-language-model capabilities, underscoring that engineering resources may currently prioritize integration over frontier model refreshes. With no single date exceeding 15.5% implied probability, the market reflects uncertainty over whether competitive pressure from OpenAI or internal benchmarks will trigger an imminent drop or push the timeline past September 30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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