Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads current benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.74, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at 82.81 and other frontier large language models on reasoning, agentic coding, and tool-use tasks following its early September 2026 release. Traders assign Anthropic a 77.5% implied probability of holding the top spot by end of November due to this demonstrated performance edge in independent evaluations and consistent model iteration cadence. OpenAI, Google, and others sit near single digits amid competitive but lower-scoring updates like Gemini 3.8 variants, with market odds reflecting uncertainty around potential late-year shifts in capabilities or new releases that could alter the competitive landscape before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 78%
OpenAI 9%
Google 7%
SpaceXAI 4.0%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
9%
7%
SpaceXAI
4%
Baidu
4%
Mistral
4%
ByteDance
4%
Amazon
4%
Moonshot
3%
StepFun
3%
Nvidia
3%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
Thinky
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
Tencent
1%
Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 9%
Google 7%
SpaceXAI 4.0%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
Anthropic
$713 Vol.
78%
OpenAI
$334 Vol.
9%
$212 Vol.
7%
SpaceXAI
$125 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$157 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$111 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$155 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$158 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$123 Vol.
3%
StepFun
$186 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$158 Vol.
3%
Meta
$123 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$84 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$156 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$120 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$74 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$74 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$123 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$74 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$74 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$74 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads current benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.74, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at 82.81 and other frontier large language models on reasoning, agentic coding, and tool-use tasks following its early September 2026 release. Traders assign Anthropic a 77.5% implied probability of holding the top spot by end of November due to this demonstrated performance edge in independent evaluations and consistent model iteration cadence. OpenAI, Google, and others sit near single digits amid competitive but lower-scoring updates like Gemini 3.8 variants, with market odds reflecting uncertainty around potential late-year shifts in capabilities or new releases that could alter the competitive landscape before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$3,409Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads current benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.74, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at 82.81 and other frontier large language models on reasoning, agentic coding, and tool-use tasks following its early September 2026 release. Traders assign Anthropic a 77.5% implied probability of holding the top spot by end of November due to this demonstrated performance edge in independent evaluations and consistent model iteration cadence. OpenAI, Google, and others sit near single digits amid competitive but lower-scoring updates like Gemini 3.8 variants, with market odds reflecting uncertainty around potential late-year shifts in capabilities or new releases that could alter the competitive landscape before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$3,409Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads current benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.74, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at 82.81 and other frontier large language models on reasoning, agentic coding, and tool-use tasks following its early September 2026 release. Traders assign Anthropic a 77.5% implied probability of holding the top spot by end of November due to this demonstrated performance edge in independent evaluations and consistent model iteration cadence. OpenAI, Google, and others sit near single digits amid competitive but lower-scoring updates like Gemini 3.8 variants, with market odds reflecting uncertainty around potential late-year shifts in capabilities or new releases that could alter the competitive landscape before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen