Anthropic holds an 86% implied probability on the LiveBench coding market through September 30 because its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants have posted the strongest verified coding subcategory scores on the latest snapshots, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and o-series models on tasks such as code generation, completion, and agentic programming. LiveBench’s contamination-resistant design favors models with demonstrated strength in practical software engineering benchmarks, where Anthropic’s iterative releases have shown consistent gains without relying on unconfirmed leaks or marketing claims. OpenAI’s lower 10% odds reflect solid but secondary performance in the same category, while other labs remain below 1% due to limited recent coding-specific improvements or public benchmark data. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the most current leaderboard differentiation over broader overall scores, though any last-minute model update could still shift the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 86.2%
OpenAI 8.9%
SpaceXAI 1.1%
Meta <1%
$62,010 Vol.
$62,010 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
86%
OpenAI
9%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 86.2%
OpenAI 8.9%
SpaceXAI 1.1%
Meta <1%
$62,010 Vol.
$62,010 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
$21,754 Vol.
86%
OpenAI
$20,304 Vol.
9%
SpaceXAI
$3,123 Vol.
1%
Meta
$3,162 Vol.
<1%
$378 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$777 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$791 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$517 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,144 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$838 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$810 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$860 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$886 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,293 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$811 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$912 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$428 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,096 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$937 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$839 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 86% implied probability on the LiveBench coding market through September 30 because its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants have posted the strongest verified coding subcategory scores on the latest snapshots, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and o-series models on tasks such as code generation, completion, and agentic programming. LiveBench’s contamination-resistant design favors models with demonstrated strength in practical software engineering benchmarks, where Anthropic’s iterative releases have shown consistent gains without relying on unconfirmed leaks or marketing claims. OpenAI’s lower 10% odds reflect solid but secondary performance in the same category, while other labs remain below 1% due to limited recent coding-specific improvements or public benchmark data. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the most current leaderboard differentiation over broader overall scores, though any last-minute model update could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$62,010Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 86% implied probability on the LiveBench coding market through September 30 because its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants have posted the strongest verified coding subcategory scores on the latest snapshots, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and o-series models on tasks such as code generation, completion, and agentic programming. LiveBench’s contamination-resistant design favors models with demonstrated strength in practical software engineering benchmarks, where Anthropic’s iterative releases have shown consistent gains without relying on unconfirmed leaks or marketing claims. OpenAI’s lower 10% odds reflect solid but secondary performance in the same category, while other labs remain below 1% due to limited recent coding-specific improvements or public benchmark data. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the most current leaderboard differentiation over broader overall scores, though any last-minute model update could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$62,010Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an 86% implied probability on the LiveBench coding market through September 30 because its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants have posted the strongest verified coding subcategory scores on the latest snapshots, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.x and o-series models on tasks such as code generation, completion, and agentic programming. LiveBench’s contamination-resistant design favors models with demonstrated strength in practical software engineering benchmarks, where Anthropic’s iterative releases have shown consistent gains without relying on unconfirmed leaks or marketing claims. OpenAI’s lower 10% odds reflect solid but secondary performance in the same category, while other labs remain below 1% due to limited recent coding-specific improvements or public benchmark data. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the most current leaderboard differentiation over broader overall scores, though any last-minute model update could still shift the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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