Anthropic’s commanding 72.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 disclosures showing Claude models leading 26% of internal AI R&D tasks end-to-end with human oversight—up sharply from under 1% in February—alongside roughly 30,000 concurrent research agents running on monitored platforms and new releases like Claude Commerce Agents plus physical tool-use advancements in Project Fetch. These concrete capability demonstrations in long-horizon planning, tool calling, and autonomous execution have positioned Claude variants ahead of rivals in agent-specific benchmarks and enterprise reliability. OpenAI and Google trail at 15% and 7.1% respectively amid ongoing SDK updates but fewer comparable internal scaling signals, while the crowded field of lower-probability contenders faces steeper barriers in demonstrated agent coherence before November resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 73%
OpenAI 15%
Z.ai 3.6%
Google 2.8%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
Anthropic
73%
OpenAI
15%
Z.ai
4%
7%
Meta
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Nvidia
1%
Moonshot
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
Baidu
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Microsoft
1%
Tencent
1%
Alibaba
6%
Anthropic 73%
OpenAI 15%
Z.ai 3.6%
Google 2.8%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
Anthropic
$727 Vol.
73%
OpenAI
$372 Vol.
15%
Z.ai
$251 Vol.
4%
$236 Vol.
7%
Meta
$263 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$215 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$188 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$188 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$188 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$208 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$224 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$178 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$188 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$188 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$188 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$188 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$188 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$190 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$200 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s commanding 72.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 disclosures showing Claude models leading 26% of internal AI R&D tasks end-to-end with human oversight—up sharply from under 1% in February—alongside roughly 30,000 concurrent research agents running on monitored platforms and new releases like Claude Commerce Agents plus physical tool-use advancements in Project Fetch. These concrete capability demonstrations in long-horizon planning, tool calling, and autonomous execution have positioned Claude variants ahead of rivals in agent-specific benchmarks and enterprise reliability. OpenAI and Google trail at 15% and 7.1% respectively amid ongoing SDK updates but fewer comparable internal scaling signals, while the crowded field of lower-probability contenders faces steeper barriers in demonstrated agent coherence before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volumen
$4,570Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:02 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s commanding 72.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 disclosures showing Claude models leading 26% of internal AI R&D tasks end-to-end with human oversight—up sharply from under 1% in February—alongside roughly 30,000 concurrent research agents running on monitored platforms and new releases like Claude Commerce Agents plus physical tool-use advancements in Project Fetch. These concrete capability demonstrations in long-horizon planning, tool calling, and autonomous execution have positioned Claude variants ahead of rivals in agent-specific benchmarks and enterprise reliability. OpenAI and Google trail at 15% and 7.1% respectively amid ongoing SDK updates but fewer comparable internal scaling signals, while the crowded field of lower-probability contenders faces steeper barriers in demonstrated agent coherence before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$4,570Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:02 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s commanding 72.5% implied probability stems from its September 2026 disclosures showing Claude models leading 26% of internal AI R&D tasks end-to-end with human oversight—up sharply from under 1% in February—alongside roughly 30,000 concurrent research agents running on monitored platforms and new releases like Claude Commerce Agents plus physical tool-use advancements in Project Fetch. These concrete capability demonstrations in long-horizon planning, tool calling, and autonomous execution have positioned Claude variants ahead of rivals in agent-specific benchmarks and enterprise reliability. OpenAI and Google trail at 15% and 7.1% respectively amid ongoing SDK updates but fewer comparable internal scaling signals, while the crowded field of lower-probability contenders faces steeper barriers in demonstrated agent coherence before November resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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