Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas at 37.5%, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling trends and alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Multiple early September surveys, including Datafolha and Quaest, show Ciro with 45-46% support compared to Elmano's 34-37%, while a Real Time Big Data poll recorded a technical tie at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from name recognition as a former governor, endorsements from center-right parties including PL and União Brasil, and a campaign emphasizing opposition to the PT-led state government. Elmano draws backing from Lula and the PT coalition for reelection but trails in several head-to-head simulations. Minor candidates remain under 2% across polls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 63%
Elmano de Freitas 38%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Roberto Cláudio <1%
$216,098 Vol.
$216,098 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Ciro Gomes
63%
Elmano de Freitas
38%
Eduardo Girão
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Ciro Gomes 63%
Elmano de Freitas 38%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Roberto Cláudio <1%
$216,098 Vol.
$216,098 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Ciro Gomes
$102,096 Vol.
63%
Elmano de Freitas
$43,123 Vol.
38%
Eduardo Girão
$18,393 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$18,024 Vol.
<1%
Camilo Santana
$16,424 Vol.
<1%
Capitão Wagner
$18,039 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas at 37.5%, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling trends and alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Multiple early September surveys, including Datafolha and Quaest, show Ciro with 45-46% support compared to Elmano's 34-37%, while a Real Time Big Data poll recorded a technical tie at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from name recognition as a former governor, endorsements from center-right parties including PL and União Brasil, and a campaign emphasizing opposition to the PT-led state government. Elmano draws backing from Lula and the PT coalition for reelection but trails in several head-to-head simulations. Minor candidates remain under 2% across polls.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$216,098Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas at 37.5%, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling trends and alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Multiple early September surveys, including Datafolha and Quaest, show Ciro with 45-46% support compared to Elmano's 34-37%, while a Real Time Big Data poll recorded a technical tie at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from name recognition as a former governor, endorsements from center-right parties including PL and União Brasil, and a campaign emphasizing opposition to the PT-led state government. Elmano draws backing from Lula and the PT coalition for reelection but trails in several head-to-head simulations. Minor candidates remain under 2% across polls.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$216,098Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas at 37.5%, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling trends and alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Multiple early September surveys, including Datafolha and Quaest, show Ciro with 45-46% support compared to Elmano's 34-37%, while a Real Time Big Data poll recorded a technical tie at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from name recognition as a former governor, endorsements from center-right parties including PL and União Brasil, and a campaign emphasizing opposition to the PT-led state government. Elmano draws backing from Lula and the PT coalition for reelection but trails in several head-to-head simulations. Minor candidates remain under 2% across polls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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