**Current trader sentiment for the lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026 reflects high uncertainty around a narrow band near 4,189.3–4,189.7 ft, with the four leading outcomes each priced near 26–27.5%.** As of late September 2026, both arms of the lake sit at approximately 4,189.6–4,189.8 ft (USGS gauges), following a dry 2025–2026 winter with record-low snowpack that limited spring inflows from the Bear, Weber, and Jordan rivers. The lake typically reaches its annual minimum in late fall or early winter before spring runoff, so further declines of several tenths of a foot remain possible through evaporation, which exceeds inflows under current warm, dry conditions. Conservation measures have added modest inflows and helped avoid a new record low (previous low: 4,188.5 ft in 2022), but the overall water balance remains stressed by upstream diversions and rising evaporation tied to warmer temperatures. Small differences in fall/winter precipitation, one or two storm systems delivering extra runoff, or variations in evaporation rates (driven by temperature, wind, and humidity) can shift the minimum by 0.1–0.4 ft. Model projections and historical analogs show that contemporary inflows (roughly 1,600–1,700 KAF/year) support stabilization near current levels rather than rapid recovery or sharp further drops, keeping all four bins competitively priced. Upcoming winter precipitation forecasts and USGS elevation updates through December will be key resolution drivers.