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icon for Israel-Wahl: Dems # der Sitze?
Welt·Israel

Israel-Wahl: Dems # der Sitze?

icon for Israel-Wahl: Dems # der Sitze?
Welt·Israel

Israel-Wahl: Dems # der Sitze?

8–9 26%

<8 23%

10–11 13%

12-13 13%

Polymarket
NEU

8–9 26%

<8 23%

10–11 13%

12-13 13%

Polymarket
NEU

<8

$939 Vol.

23%

8–9

$188 Vol.

26%

10–11

$174 Vol.

24%

12-13

$146 Vol.

13%

14+

$154 Vol.

7%

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent opinion polls following final candidate list submissions on September 8 show The Democrats, the Labor-Meretz merger led by Yair Golan, consistently projected at 8-10 Knesset seats in a fragmented field ahead of the October 27 election. This range aligns with trader pricing, where 10-11 and 8-9 seats lead at similar probabilities amid stable bloc totals that leave both pro- and anti-Netanyahu alliances short of a 61-seat majority. Tightness stems from limited movement in voter preferences after mergers such as Religious Zionism-Zehut, variable small-party threshold crossings, and competition within the center-left for seats. Further shifts in turnout among swing voters, additional alliances, or late security-related developments could separate outcomes by altering the overall seat distribution before election day.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$1,601
Enddatum
27. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent opinion polls following final candidate list submissions on September 8 show The Democrats, the Labor-Meretz merger led by Yair Golan, consistently projected at 8-10 Knesset seats in a fragmented field ahead of the October 27 election. This range aligns with trader pricing, where 10-11 and 8-9 seats lead at similar probabilities amid stable bloc totals that leave both pro- and anti-Netanyahu alliances short of a 61-seat majority. Tightness stems from limited movement in voter preferences after mergers such as Religious Zionism-Zehut, variable small-party threshold crossings, and competition within the center-left for seats. Further shifts in turnout among swing voters, additional alliances, or late security-related developments could separate outcomes by altering the overall seat distribution before election day.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$1,601
Enddatum
27. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Gemeinsame Liste bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 8-9 Sitze gewinnen?

Wird die Gemeinsame Liste bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 8-9 Sitze gewinnen?

36%
Ja
icon for Werden die Demokraten bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 6-7 % der Stimmen erhalten?

Werden die Demokraten bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 6-7 % der Stimmen erhalten?

35%
Ja
icon for Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

41%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Israel-Wahl: Dems # der Sitze?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „8–9" mit 26%, gefolgt von „10–11" mit 24%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 26¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 26% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Israel-Wahl: Dems # der Sitze?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 4, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Israel-Wahl: Dems # der Sitze?" ist „8–9" mit 26%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 26% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „10–11" mit 24%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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